U.S. crude inventories fall 2.03 million barrels, according to market estimate
Key Facts
Reuters, citing market sources, reported that U.S. crude inventories fell 2.03 million barrels in the week ended October 23, according to an estimate by the American Petroleum Institute. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected an increase of about 15,000 barrels, making the preliminary draw estimate run counter to their expectations. The figure is the institute’s estimate, not an official reading from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The EIA’s weekly report page did not show an October 28 release when checked; the latest release displayed there was dated October 21. The official data for the new week therefore remained unpublished on the page, while traders awaited its release.
The preliminary estimate came as the oil market remained sensitive to supply risks. In the previous session covered by the Associated Press, Brent closed at $116.72 a barrel, up 3.1%, its highest level since June 2022. EL7 data also showed Brent closing at $113.88 on October 27, after closing at $116.72 on October 23. These prices reflect market moves on different dates and do not, on their own, attribute price changes to the crude inventory estimate.
The EIA links the price backdrop to disruptions in oil flows and falling global inventories. The agency estimated that global oil inventories fell by an average of 1.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2026, and forecast a further decline averaging 0.7 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter. It said oil prices would remain high until constraints on oil flows from the Middle East ease and inventories are replenished. The agency added that attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline highlighted the possibility of continued volatility in actual oil flows and prices. These factors provide broader context for the U.S. draw estimate, without making a single weekly reading a sufficient measure of the market’s direction.
In its October outlook, the EIA said it expected constraints on oil flows from the Middle East to continue through the fourth quarter of 2026, while regional production and exports were generally expected to rise during the forecast period. The agency raised its forecast for the average spot Brent price in the fourth quarter to $105 a barrel, up $14 from the previous month’s forecast. It attributed additional upward pressure to a tight diesel market, but forecast that spot Brent would average $84 a barrel in 2027. In the spot market, ING analysts said, according to Reuters, that prices remained elevated as traders awaited greater clarity on the next U.S. move toward Iran. The analysts added that getting past the elections without new strikes could allow the risk premium to ease.
The EIA’s weekly report was scheduled for release at its usual time on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time, with announced exceptions for some holidays. Before the agency’s data were published, Reuters reported the American Petroleum Institute’s estimate and analysts’ forecast for the week ended October 23. It also reported that the market was watching for an OPEC+ policymakers’ meeting on Sunday, with December production targets expected to remain unchanged, according to people familiar with the matter. The subsequent official report will allow the institute’s estimate to be compared with the agency’s reading, while the EIA figure for the week remained absent from the open releases page when checked.