Russian crude exports remained 10% below pre-war levels despite sanctions

Key Facts

A report citing UBS chief economist Arend Kapteyn said Russian crude export volumes remained about 10% below pre-war levels, despite the European Union’s ban and the price cap imposed by the Group of Seven. The assessment comes as Moscow announced diesel supplies to U.S. and global markets, while the first tanker carrying Russian diesel sailed for the United States. ZeroHedge cited a UBS note as saying, "Export volumes are still only around 10% below pre-war levels." Kapteyn said the clearest effect of the restrictions was a redistribution of supplies, adding that "the most prominent effect of restrictions on Russian oil exports appears to have been a redistribution of global supplies." This highlights a gap between continued flows of Russian crude and changing buyers and shipping routes, while the expected U.S. shipment remains limited compared with daily U.S. diesel consumption.

Destination data cited in the report show a sharp shift since before the war in Ukraine. The European Union’s share of Russian crude exports fell from 48% before the war to 4% by September 2026. By contrast, China, India and Turkey together increased their share from 29% to 77% over the same period, making them the dominant destinations for exports, according to the note. The report estimated that 61% of Russian crude is shipped by what is known as the shadow fleet, outside Western financing and insurance systems. The shift in destinations and shipping reflects trade being redirected under the restrictions, without meaning that Russian supplies have disappeared from the global market.

Figures from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air show that resilient export volumes do not guarantee stable revenues. Russian fossil fuel export revenues were broadly steady in September at 625 million euros a day, despite a 6% month-on-month drop in volumes. Crude export revenues alone, however, fell 8% to 339 million euros a day, as volumes declined 11%. Meanwhile, seaborne oil product export revenues rose 6% to 83 million euros a day, and volumes increased 2%, although revenues remained at their second-lowest level since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The figures show diverging trends for crude and oil products, with crude income falling in the same month that seaborne product revenues rose.

On oil products, CREA said Russia imported 234,000 tonnes of seaborne products in September, down 44% from August, but still the second-highest monthly level in its data since January 2022. The report citing UBS said Russia had begun importing large volumes of refined products, a notable development for a country that is a major exporter of diesel, fuel oil and naphtha. CREA linked pressure on oil processing to Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries since May. It said the port of Tuapse, which was Russia’s fourth-largest oil product export port before the full-scale invasion, had faced continued attacks and had not loaded a full shipment of oil products since June. It also reported that 57% of Russian oil shipped by sea in September was carried by sanctioned shadow fleet tankers, compared with 40% transported by tankers owned or insured by Group of Seven countries and their partners.

As for supplies to the United States, U.S. President Donald Trump said on October 9 that Russia had agreed to supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately to the U.S. and global markets. He added that 3 million tonnes would be supplied over a short period, depending on the capacity of Russian diesel refineries, alongside 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes immediately afterward. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the first shipment amounted to 40,000 tonnes, or about 300,000 barrels. That is equivalent to nearly 7% of the U.S. economy’s daily consumption, which is about 4 million barrels of diesel. Kpler said the first tanker was heading to New York and was expected to arrive on November 7, making it the first shipment of Russian diesel to reach the United States since July 2023. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, "The first tanker has sailed to customers, and regular supplies will continue."

Energy policy experts cited by AP ruled out any meaningful impact from the deal on high fuel prices. Analysts and market monitors cited by Reuters also said the promised volumes were too small to ease the global supply squeeze and that diesel prices were likely to remain high. Among regional buyers, CREA’s cumulative analysis for the period from December 5, 2022, through the end of September 2026 showed Turkey was the largest buyer of Russian oil products, with a 26% share, followed by China at 13% and Brazil at 11%. Saudi Arabia accounted for 8% of exports, a share equal to Singapore’s, according to the analysis. The nearest date in the shipping data is the tanker’s expected arrival in New York on November 7, while subsequent announced volumes remain tied to the supply schedule outlined by Trump.