EPA Expects $45 Billion in Savings From Changes to Methane Rules
Key Facts
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced a proposal on October 27, 2026, to revise oil and gas rules under the Clean Air Act, in a move it said could save consumers and businesses $45 billion. The proposal was announced in Lubbock, Texas, with President Donald Trump and agency Administrator Lee Zeldin in attendance. The agency estimates the changes could allow an additional 210 million barrels of oil and 1.41 trillion cubic feet of natural gas to be produced. These are projected figures under the proposal, not production already achieved or savings already realized. The proposal targets Biden administration rules known as OOOOb/c, but the announcement did not repeal them; review of the changes begins after they are published in the Federal Register.
The agency said the $45 billion estimate covers consumers and businesses, including households and small companies operating marginal wells. In 2024, the EPA estimated the cost of the previous rules at about $18 billion when they were adopted. By contrast, the Biden administration estimated the rule would generate benefits worth $98 billion by 2034, according to an Associated Press report. The report said that estimate included the future social costs of emissions to health and the environment, an approach the EPA under Trump rejects. These differing estimates provide context for debate over the rules’ economic costs and benefits, without determining the outcome of the regulatory review.
The proposal would repeal the “super-emitter” program, which allows third-party monitors to detect major leak events and requires states to adopt the program. This would not mean that all leak-monitoring requirements are repealed; the specific change concerns this program. The agency also proposes classifying well sites by production level, as marginal or non-marginal, or by resource type, conventional or unconventional, allowing for separate categories and standards. The agency said marginal wells account for about four in five producing wells in the United States. This gives changes affecting small wells a prominent place in the proposal, while an Associated Press report noted that small wells produce 6% of U.S. oil and gas but contribute up to half of methane emissions from oil and gas fields.
For gas associated with oil production, the agency proposes again treating flaring at 95% efficiency, or using other control devices, as the best system for reducing emissions. This would replace the requirement to direct all associated gas from oil wells to a sales line. The agency said existing rules required a 95% reduction in emissions associated with associated gas, a rate that matches the efficiency of flaring or control devices proposed in the revision. The Biden administration’s approach expanded the rules to cover existing wells as well, after earlier rules focused on new wells, according to the Associated Press. In December 2023, the EPA announced the final rule and said it covered existing sources nationwide for the first time, alongside standards for new, modified and reconstructed sources.
When announcing the final rule, the EPA said oil and gas operations are the largest industrial source of methane in the United States, and that the rule aimed to cut emissions from covered sources by about 80% over the period from 2024 to 2038, compared with projected emissions without its implementation. Federal officials under Biden said the rule would prevent about 58 million tons of methane from being emitted by 2038, while also reducing other pollutants that cause health problems. These environmental estimates provide background to the proposed changes to oversight and emissions, while the agency’s economic estimate focuses on savings for consumers and businesses and potential additional production. A Reuters report described the move as the latest pre-election effort to address fuel prices, which have become a political burden for Republicans amid the war with Iran. The report did not cite a direct price impact from the proposal on other countries’ exports.
The agency plans to open a public comment period of at least 45 days, including a public hearing, after the proposal is published in the Federal Register. This stage allows comments on the changes to be submitted before the regulatory process is completed. According to a Bloomberg report, the proposal targets 2024 standards and includes methane controls for wells, pipelines and processing facilities. The announcement remains a proposal until the review ends and subsequent regulatory steps are taken, while the agency’s statement did not specify when the comment period would end ahead of publication. The next step is therefore tied to the date the proposal is published, not the date it was announced in Texas.