Likud Leads with 20.6% in Inconclusive Partial Count of Israeli Election
Key Facts
Partial results from Israel’s election showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party leading on the morning of October 28, 2026, after half the votes had been counted, with 20.6%, compared with 16.8% for Yashar, led by his main rival Gadi Eisenkot. The Associated Press reported that the published figures showed the race remained undecided as the election commission continued counting votes. The results put the two parties at the forefront, but do not by themselves determine which bloc will be able to form a government. Exit polls had shown that neither bloc won a parliamentary majority. That means the path to forming a government will depend on the final count and the political arrangements that follow.
A government needs 61 seats in the Knesset for a majority, according to the Associated Press’s report on exit polls. Neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor Eisenkot’s bloc reached that number, making negotiations to assemble a governing coalition likely. Forecasts before the vote also pointed to a close race, with neither the Likud bloc nor the opposition alliance around Eisenkot expected to win the seats needed to govern. The Knesset has 120 seats, making coalition arithmetic decisive after the vote. The Associated Press said forming a government could take weeks of bargaining or end in a new election.
Netanyahu remained interim prime minister as vote counting continued, according to the Associated Press. After the results are in, President Isaac Herzog must choose the person he believes is best positioned to form a government. The partial results do not settle that choice, as the election commission is still awaiting completion of the count and the published figures could change. The commission set November 4, 2026, as the deadline for publishing the final results in the official gazette. It said the results could change until that date, leaving the final distribution of seats and the process of appointing a prime minister open.
Turnout in the election was 77.7% of eligible voters, according to the election commission’s final update, reported by the Associated Press when polls closed on Tuesday evening. The report described the rate as the highest since 1999 and slightly more than 7 percentage points above turnout in the 2022 election. Voting took place amid a close race, with neither bloc expected to win a majority according to pre-election polls. The high turnout adds a large number of votes to the ongoing count, while the distribution of seats remains subject to the announcement of final results. Exit polls did not settle who won or what the next coalition would look like.
The election took place against the backdrop of the fallout from the October 7, 2023, attack, in which militants killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 251 others hostage, according to the Associated Press. Wars in Gaza and beyond followed the attack, forming part of the political and security backdrop to the vote. Before the vote, Israeli markets had posted large gains since the attacks: Tel Aviv’s stock market rose 130% through October 26, 2026, compared with an 80% rise on Wall Street, according to a Reuters report published by TimesLIVE. The shekel also gained 25% over the same period. The report said investors were watching the election result’s impact on the currency, but the partial results alone do not establish the direction of market moves after the vote.
Before the election, JPMorgan estimated that the shekel could move by as much as 3%, depending on the result, according to a Reuters report published via TimesLIVE. IBI’s chief economist said an opposition victory could lower Israel’s risk premium and support the currency and local stocks. The assessment linked that possibility to a change in the risk premium, not to a confirmed market outcome after the vote. The outcome remains undecided in the partial count, while no verified figures were available here on moves in stocks or the shekel in trading on October 28. Final results are due by November 4, after which steps to form a government will begin based on whom President Herzog chooses.