SK hynix expects memory demand to outstrip supply through 2030 as AI bets grow
Key Facts
SK hynix expects memory demand to remain above supply through 2030, citing the difficulty of advanced manufacturing technologies and the time required to build new production facilities. In its third-quarter earnings announcement, the company said these factors limit how quickly it can expand capacity, even as market needs continue to grow. It added that growth in AI memory is supporting near-term market expansion, with applications among businesses and individuals. Over the medium to long term, the company expects physical AI applications, such as autonomous driving and robotics, to provide another source of demand. It said the market will continue to grow, led by these applications, while it expects supply growth to remain constrained through the end of the decade.
The supply outlook underscores the importance of high-bandwidth memory to the company’s business, as it anticipates a shift in its product mix in the fourth quarter of 2026. SK hynix expects HBM4 shipments and revenue to exceed HBM3E levels in that quarter, with the new generation becoming its main product. The outlook links AI-related demand growth with the company’s ability to meet customer needs with newer products. It also said it had secured long-term agreements covering more than 50% of its production capacity for 2027 and 2028. The company said the agreements reflect market conditions and are intended to ensure stable profitability, giving a large share of future production contractual coverage.
Robinhood reported third-quarter net revenue of $1.42 billion, up 12% year over year, alongside a sharp decline in cryptocurrency activity. The company said revenue from that activity fell 55% to $120 million compared with the same period a year earlier. Nominal cryptocurrency trading volume also fell 38% year over year to $50 billion. Volume comprised $21 billion through the Robinhood app, down 48% year over year, and $29 billion through Bitstamp, down 28%. The figures show a divergence within the company’s business: total revenue grew while cryptocurrency revenue and trading volumes contracted.
Other revenue sources offset some of the weakness in cryptocurrency: event contract revenue rose to $173 million, more than six times its level a year earlier. Options revenue was $399 million, up 31% year over year, while equities revenue reached $121 million, up 41%. But revenue growth did not prevent annual declines in profitability measures. Net income fell 14% to $476 million, and diluted earnings per share dropped 16% to $0.51. The quarter therefore combined growth in some trading activities with lower income and earnings per share compared with the previous year.
In an update to its 2026 spending outlook, Robinhood lowered the upper end of its previous estimate for adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation by $25 million. The expected range is now between $2.675 billion and $2.75 billion, and the company said the reduction reflects continued efficiency gains across its business. Meanwhile, the chief financial officer said net deposits since the start of October had exceeded $13 billion as of the earnings announcement. That amount included $6 billion from the Dell family’s contribution to Trump Accounts. The figures point to strong deposit flows this month, alongside a lower annual expense estimate.
In trading, SK hynix closed at $145.36 on October 27, compared with $142.62 in the previous session, according to EL7 data. Robinhood shares closed at $94.56 the same day, versus $92.84 on October 26. Closing-price data do not link price changes to cryptocurrency revenue or memory demand outlooks, so the comparison here is limited to daily closing levels. Robinhood held a call to discuss its results on October 27 at 2 p.m. Pacific time, or 5 p.m. Eastern time. The expected operational development at SK hynix is centered on the fourth quarter, when the company expects HBM4 to surpass HBM3E in shipments and revenue.