Very Large Crude Carrier Rates Surge More Than 1,600% as Sinokor Messages Move Market Benchmarks
Key Facts
Very large crude carrier rates rose more than 1,600% during 2026 amid disruptions linked to the war in Iran, while Sinokor’s messages to shipbrokers became an important source of pricing information. According to a Bloomberg report republished by gCaptain, some messages include details of a new fixture, such as the vessel name, counterparty and price, while others refer more generally to ongoing negotiations. Brokers rely on these signals to assess the market, and the report said the global benchmark published by the Baltic Exchange typically recorded a further jump in the days after those messages. This role puts the flow of fixture information at the center of tracking oil transportation costs, without meaning that the company’s messages alone determine prices. The rise in rates coincided with wartime disruptions that affected tanker movements.
The TD3C benchmark measures the cost of transporting oil from inside the Arabian Gulf to China and is one of the references tracked by participants in the tanker market. The Baltic Exchange publishes a rate for the benchmark based on market assessments submitted daily by a selected group of shipbrokers. Contract and negotiation information therefore reaches the pricing process through brokers’ estimates, rather than as a standalone official rate issued by Sinokor. Bloomberg reported that the increases following the company’s messages are linked to the formation of market expectations about voyage costs. The benchmark’s design takes on particular importance as vessels change routes and customary shipping through the Strait of Hormuz declines.
Operational and security factors beyond the flow of messages are supporting the tanker market, according to the report. Some vessels have become tied to longer and unusual routes, while others are waiting outside the Gulf to load oil, reducing the effective availability of tankers. The report also pointed to an escalation in Iranian missile and drone strikes on vessels. These risks add to disruption in commercial shipping in the region and help explain pressure on the sector’s capacity. The report said very large crude carrier rates rose more than 1,600% during the year amid wartime disruptions, underscoring the scale of the market shift.
The debate has extended to the validity of the benchmark itself. Mercuria said in a lawsuit that the near-total halt in customary commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war had left the calculation of the TD3C benchmark without a basis. The objection reflects the benchmark’s reliance on the shipping activity whose cost it is meant to measure, at a time when the usual route is disrupted. In its report for the week ended October 23, the Baltic Exchange cut its TD3C assessment by 88 points to WS1,208.13. The report estimated the standard tanker’s round-trip earnings at $1,287,851 per day. These figures show that the weekly assessment fell despite the large increase in tanker rates during the year, in a market affected by vessel availability and route risks.
Over the same period, the TD34 assessment, which measures shipping from the Gulf of Oman to China, fell by 146 points to WS620, with round-trip earnings of $656,587 per day. The route was launched in June 2026 in response to market demand for a transparent, commercially usable benchmark for assessing tanker freight rates for oil carried from outside the Arabian Gulf. The route is assessed on the basis of a 270,000-metric-ton cargo from Mina Al Fahal in the Gulf of Oman to Ningbo in China. Industry insiders say their interest in the new benchmark is growing as open interest in derivatives contracts linked to TD3C declines. This puts TD34 on an expansionary path as scrutiny continues over TD3C’s ability to represent shipping costs through the Gulf.
On Chinese demand, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index registered 50.1% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The index placed the reading in expansion territory. The next monthly report is scheduled for October 31, 2026. The calendar of indicators also shows the RatingDog manufacturing index is due on November 2, following the previous release on September 30. These dates remain upcoming milestones for tracking Chinese industrial data, while the tanker market debate centers on vessel availability and the benchmarks used for shipping rates.