EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•28 October 2026•
4 min read

Russia Issues Permits for First Grain Ships to Leave Sea of Azov Since July 10 Closure

Key Facts

1Russian authorities issued the permits on October 28 for the first time since navigation was closed on July 10, according to 7 industry sources.
2The period for issuing permits to pass through the Kerch Strait ends on November 15.
3S&P Global Energy CERA cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 32.5 million tons, from 42.5 million tons on September 25.
4Wheat delivered to Egypt was priced at $313 per ton on October 6, at a $109 premium to the benchmark.

Russian authorities have issued permits for grain export ships to leave the Sea of Azov, for the first time since navigation in the area was closed on July 10, Reuters reported on October 28, citing 7 industry sources. The decision allows ships to seek passage through the Kerch Strait, which connects the Sea of Azov with the Black Sea. The sources said the permits would be issued during a period ending on November 15. An industry source also said the port director had ordered the start of clearance procedures for ships that were fully ready. The permits do not mean that navigation has fully resumed, but they allow some ships to prepare to depart.

Navigation in the area was closed on July 10 because of Ukrainian drone attacks, according to a Reuters report published by The Moscow Times. More than three months later, the permits mark the first announced step to allow grain ships to leave since the closure. Two sources said a Russian naval convoy would escort the ships through the Black Sea, adding a military escort to departure arrangements. The report said the permits indicate that Russian officials consider passage through the Kerch Strait into the Black Sea to be "relatively safe" at present. The move remains tied to the permit window and ships’ operational procedures, rather than an announcement of a sustained resumption of trade.

The move comes as Russia and Ukraine have traded attacks on ports and ships in the Black Sea region since the new grain marketing season began in July. Reuters said the attacks had halted agricultural trade that was thriving in the region. On October 6, wheat delivered to Egypt on a CIF basis was priced at about $313 per ton, at a $109 premium to the milling wheat benchmark, according to an assessment by S&P Global. These prices show the cost of purchases in the Egyptian market during the disruption, while the effect of the permits on actual shipments will depend on ships departing and passage continuing. The World Bank said agricultural commodity prices rose 1.6% in September from August, while food prices increased 3.8% over the same period.

For the milling wheat benchmark, S&P Global said the average price was $211.73 per metric ton in September, down from $219.30 in August. The index then fell to $204 per ton on October 6, a new low, the company said. This coincided with continued disruption to supplies through the Black Sea, while the price of wheat delivered to Egypt remained $109 per ton above the benchmark on the same date. The company’s data link disrupted flows to the widening cost of wheat imports to Egypt relative to the benchmark. The effect of the Russian permits on prices will depend on ships actually departing and shipments becoming regular.

S&P Global Energy CERA cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 32.5 million metric tons for the 2026/27 season, from 42.5 million tons in its September 25 forecast. The new estimate was based on the assumption that Black Sea exports would return to normal by January 2027. That assumption sets a future date for the restoration of normal flows, while the current move is limited to departure permits valid through November 15. Turkey, an importer of Russian wheat, has led efforts to broker a ceasefire and resume shipments in the Black Sea. Russian officials have said they do not want an agreement that excludes targets in other sectors, leaving the broader arrangements under negotiation.

The permits were issued as a local ceasefire began to allow humanitarian supplies to reach the Russian-controlled town of Oleshky in the Kherson region. Melania Trump, who mediated the truce, said it had been extended to the entire Kherson region. Russia and Ukraine said the ceasefire was holding. The arrangement remains local in its announced scope, while the permits concern grain ships departing through the Kerch Strait and the Black Sea. The next step identified by the sources is to complete clearance for ships that are ready and depart during the permit period ending on November 15.