Orion Raises 2026 Sales Forecast to €2,140 Million and Operating Profit to €790 Million
Key Facts
Finnish pharmaceutical company Orion raised its 2026 guidance range on October 20, forecasting net sales of €2,070 million to €2,140 million and operating profit of €730 million to €790 million. The announcement came before the interim report for the nine months was published on October 28, so the revision was not a result of those results. The company attributed the higher guidance to royalty income growing faster than expected during the first nine months and said it expected this trend to continue through the rest of the year. It said in its statement, "Royalty income increased faster than expected during the first nine months of 2026, and this positive development is expected to continue during the rest of the year." The company had issued its previous ranges on July 17, at €2,000 million to €2,100 million for sales and €650 million to €750 million for operating profit.
The forecast is based on higher royalties from Nubeqa and sales of the product recorded by Orion during 2026. The company said underlying operating profit growth, excluding material milestone payments, is expected to come from higher sales, particularly Nubeqa royalties.
The interim report published on October 28 showed nine-month underlying earnings per share rising to €2.83, compared with €1.71 in the corresponding period of 2025. Cash flow from operating activities per share also rose to €2.89 from €1.67. In the third quarter alone, underlying earnings per share were €1.19, versus €0.68 a year earlier, while operating cash flow per share rose to €0.68 from €0.55. Chief Executive Liisa Hurme said improved profitability came mainly from higher royalty income. She said third-quarter revenue growth benefited from the Innovative Medicines and Branded Products divisions.
Nubeqa was the main driver of sales growth, according to management, which said the product maintained a strong growth trajectory. It added that the Easyhaler portfolio and women's health products also contributed, supported by strong demand. Orion relies on royalties and product sales recorded by the company as sources of sales growth, while it said higher royalties in particular support underlying operating profit growth. By contrast, 2026 guidance excludes material milestone payments; the company recorded a milestone payment of €180 million in 2025. This means comparisons of operating profit may be affected by the presence or absence of such payments, as well as sales and royalty performance.
Orion cautions that Nubeqa royalties are difficult to forecast accurately, noting that any deviation from the expected level could have a material effect on operating profit. Earnings also fluctuate because of the mechanism for delivering products to partners: the value of deliveries in each quarter is deducted in full from royalty payments in the following quarter. A significant portion of Nubeqa income comes from the United States, so dollar movements affect operating profit volatility. The company included some impact from U.S. tariffs in its sales guidance range, but said details of U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs, their implementation and their impact remain unclear. These factors, along with the timing of deliveries, could cause actual royalty income to differ from the expected level.
In research and development, Orion began Phase I clinical development of candidate ODM-216, the first biologic asset to reach this stage in the company's pipeline. It also announced interim results from the Phase III DASL-HiCaP trial at the ESMO 2026 conference. Hurme said the company expects to advance additional assets into clinical development in the coming months. Management said it signed two European licensing agreements during the year, the most recent in early October. The agreements cover biosimilar medicines still in development, and the company said it can support their growth in the 2030s.
Orion had scheduled publication of its January–September report for October 28, 2026, at around 12:00 p.m. Eastern European Time, followed by a webcast and investor call at 14:00 the same day. The published report confirmed the earnings and cash flow figures for the nine months and third quarter, after the guidance increase was announced the previous week. The annual outlook remains tied to continued growth in Nubeqa royalties and sales, in line with the company's assumptions. Orion also said the impact of U.S. tariffs is partly included in the range, while implementation details and the impact remain unresolved. The available statement did not include a share-price reaction that could be attributed to the report's results.