Italy records 24.363 million employed as Scope affirms BBB+ rating
Key Facts
The number of employed people in Italy reached 24.363 million on a seasonally adjusted basis in the second quarter of 2026, up 155,000 from the first quarter, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics, Istat. The employment rate was 63.1%, up 0.4 percentage points over three months. The unemployment rate rose to 5.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. Year on year, the number of employed people increased by 246,000, or 1.0%, compared with the same period in 2025. The number of unemployed fell by 167,000, or 9.8%, over the same period. These figures provide a more balanced picture than the previous draft: the 63.1% figure refers to employment, not unemployment, while 24.363 million was the number of employed people, not the total labor force.
The labor data came as Scope Ratings affirmed Italy’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings at BBB+ and maintained a positive outlook in its announcement dated October 23, 2026. The agency said record employment, together with sound corporate balance sheets, profitable and well-capitalized banks, and a positive net international investment position, support the country’s ability to absorb shocks. The assessment links the labor market to a broader set of economic and financial resilience factors cited by the agency. At the same time, it retained clear constraints on the rating: high public debt, weak growth potential and adverse demographic trends. The rating affirmation therefore came with praise for resilience factors, alongside recognition of ongoing public finance and growth challenges.
Scope expects real gross domestic product to grow 1.0% in 2026, with the fiscal deficit reaching 2.9% of GDP that year. The agency estimates public debt at about 137% of GDP, among the highest levels in Europe, and expects the ratio to remain broadly stable through 2031. The deficit path in its forecasts, however, does not move in one direction: it expects the deficit to widen to 3.4% of GDP in 2027 before narrowing to 2.7% by 2031 as fiscal consolidation resumes. It also expects the primary surplus to fall from 1.2% of GDP in 2026 to 0.8% in 2027, then rise to 1.9% by 2031. These projections place the rating affirmation in the context of a balance between limited growth, a heavy debt burden and a fiscal path that varies over the coming years.
National accounts for the second quarter show Italy’s GDP grew 0.2% from the previous quarter and 1.0% year on year. Sector performance varied: value added in services rose 0.4% quarter on quarter, while it fell 0.6% in industry. These figures provide context for the full-year growth Scope forecasts, with services and industry following different paths in the second quarter. Separately, Istat estimated that the policy shift from the Citizens’ Income to the Inclusion Allowance reduced disposable income for about 850,000 households in 2024. The average annual loss was about 2,600 euros, with the poorest households hit hardest. The data do not link this social impact to the rating decision or Scope’s growth forecasts.
Scope said the positive outlook reflects its assessment that rating risks over the next twelve to eighteen months are tilted toward improvement. The agency said, however, that it would monitor the continuity of policy commitments through the next electoral cycle, including the general election in 2027. Its monitoring will focus on whether election results support policy continuity, fiscal discipline and the implementation of reforms, as well as possible changes to the electoral law. In the near term, Istat’s calendar sets October 29 for the release of preliminary employment and unemployment data for September 2026. The following day, October 30, the preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP is due. The two releases will provide a more up-to-date reading of labor-market and economic activity trends following the second-quarter data.