Less Than 1% of International Bandwidth Passes Through Hormuz Amid Iranian Threat to Subsea Cables
Key Facts
Yadollah Javani, deputy for political affairs at Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, threatened to target undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz if Iranian infrastructure came under attack. Javani said Iran would use its “full capabilities” if its infrastructure were attacked, according to Press TV. The official linked the threat to a shift in Tehran’s approach, saying the change was aimed at strengthening deterrence and preventing the United States from considering a new attack. The warning came as fears of a return to war mounted, while the Associated Press reported that Iran had warned it could target new assets, including subsea data cables in the strait. The threat remains conditional on an attack on Iran, according to Javani’s public statement.
According to two Iranian security officials unnamed by Reuters, Tehran has drawn up plans to target subsea communications cables in the Gulf if the United States and Israel attack it again. Reuters quoted the officials as saying Iran would also seek to prevent cable repairs, with the aim of prolonging communications outages. This differs from Javani’s public statement, which referred to targeting cables that pass through the strait if Iranian infrastructure is attacked, and to strengthening deterrence. Reuters attributed the details of the plans and efforts to prevent repairs to the unnamed security officials. The threat puts subsea communications infrastructure in the context of regional escalation, without indicating that an outage has occurred.
Alan Mauldin of TeleGeography said less than 1% of international bandwidth passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which could limit the impact of any targeting on global data traffic. But the International Cable Protection Committee describes the potential risks in the strait as primarily regional, putting connectivity for countries in the region at the center of concern. Subsea cables carry about 99% of global internet traffic, according to International Telecommunication Union data cited by Reuters. The figures reflect the difference between the world’s reliance on subsea cables and the limited share of international bandwidth that passes through Hormuz. Potential damage in the strait may therefore be more closely tied to regional connectivity, even as its share of total international bandwidth remains limited.
Subsea cable failures continue even in the absence of deliberate sabotage; a Reuters report estimates about 150 to 200 failures a year. Some 70 to 80% of those failures are attributed to accidental human activity, such as fishing and ship anchors, according to the International Cable Protection Committee and experts. Reuters said in an earlier report that subsea cables had not been damaged during the war up to that point, but it pointed to an indirect risk from damaged ships that could drift and drag their anchors across the cables. These risks show that threats to subsea infrastructure are not limited to direct targeting, as cables can also be damaged by ship traffic. The ability of networks to reroute data traffic onto alternative paths remains a factor in the scale of any outage, Reuters reported, noting that the impact could vary depending on available routes.
As part of efforts to strengthen regional connectivity, Microsoft said it plans to invest more than $400 million in subsea and terrestrial connectivity across the Middle East by 2030. The plan includes subsea and terrestrial infrastructure, as the company seeks to strengthen capacity and data flows in the region. The announced investment comes as the risks of relying on routes that pass through sensitive regional corridors come into focus. The company’s plan links the expansion of subsea and terrestrial connectivity in the Middle East with stronger regional digital resilience. Javani’s statements and the security officials’ plans remain conditional on renewed attacks, while 2030 is the timeframe Microsoft set for its investment.