Glencore Sees Record Marketing Earnings Amid Energy and Shipping Market Disruption

Key Facts

Glencore Chief Executive Gary Nagle expects an exceptional year for the company, supported by asset sales and a boom in trading, according to the headline of a Financial Times report on remarks he made at a private event. The outlook coincided with the company raising its marketing earnings estimates, as the business benefits from disruption in energy and shipping markets, and with its efforts to reshape its asset portfolio. Glencore estimated group adjusted EBITDA at about $19.7 billion in 2026, based on current commodity prices and expected volume growth in the second half, particularly in coking coal. The company also kept its annual production guidance ranges for copper, zinc and nickel unchanged. The quarterly production report due on October 29 is the next near-term date for tracking operational performance.

First-half results showed a surge in adjusted marketing EBIT to $3.3 billion, up 142% from the same period, a level close to the record. Group adjusted EBITDA rose 86% to $10.1 billion over the same period. Glencore attributed the marketing business's performance to major disruption in energy, shipping and other markets amid geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility. The company said its previous estimate assumed a second-half result near the upper end of its previous guidance range. It also linked its updated outlook to the reshaping of markets for crude, refined products, gas and shipping. This represents a sharp improvement on the first half of 2025, when the segment posted adjusted earnings of $1.361 billion, down 8% from the same period in 2024 due to difficult energy markets, partly offset by metals.

The new estimate puts the marketing business well above its previous long-term guidance range of $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion. The segment's adjusted operating earnings hit a record $6.4 billion in 2022, when the war in Ukraine caused similar market disruption. The comparison shows that 2026 combines market disruption with a surge in the business's results, while the company's estimates are based on current commodity prices and expected volume growth in the second half. As part of a change in how it presents the business's performance, Glencore said its new long-term guidance methodology will take effect from 2027. The methodology will take into account marketable inventory and financing costs. This step separates the current annual outlook from the framework that will later be used to assess marketing earnings.

The year's outlook is also tied to asset deals in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Kazakhstan, after a Financial Times summary said the company was exploring sales of stakes in its operations in both countries. On February 3, Glencore said it had agreed to sell a 40% stake in its copper and cobalt assets in Congo to the U.S.-backed Orion consortium in a deal valued at about $9 billion, including debt. In Kazakhstan, the company was expected to sell its 70% stake in Kazzinc, a zinc, lead and gold producer, according to a Reuters report on February 6. The report cited analysts' estimate of the asset's value at about $5 billion. The details show the different status of the two deals: the Congo sale was announced as an agreement, while the Kazzinc sale was reported as an expectation. The Financial Times summary did not specify the size of the stakes being considered for sale or the timing of any sale.

On the balance sheet, Glencore's net debt stood at $10.194 billion on June 30, compared with $11.171 billion at the end of 2025. The company said total shareholder returns in 2026 were about $3.5 billion after the addition of a special cash distribution and share buyback. In the market, GLNCY closed at 14.41 on October 27, according to EL7 data. Glencore shares began trading on the Australian market on October 14 as part of a secondary listing. These developments come as investors track earnings expectations and potential deals. The company is due to publish its third-quarter production report on October 29, the next announced date for production data.