GIFT Nifty futures fall 224 points as Brent climbs to $115.36
Key Facts
The November GIFT Nifty contract fell 224 points, or 0.98%, to 22,588 at around 8 a.m. India time on Oct. 28, signaling an expected weaker open for the Sensex and Nifty. Moneycontrol reported the reading before trading began, so it does not represent the outcome of the Indian stock market session. The signal came as Brent crude futures rose $1.48, or 1.3%, to $115.36 a barrel. WTI crude also climbed $1.22, or 1.22%, to $101.12 a barrel. The report linked the rise in oil to an attack on a refinery in Saudi Arabia, reviving concerns about energy supplies from the Middle East.
The signal from Indian futures diverged from gains in global markets. In early Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei rose 1.2%, while South Korea's Kospi jumped more than 3%. Major US indexes had closed higher in the previous session, with the Nasdaq up 1.18%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.60% and the Dow Jones rising 0.03%. Moneycontrol said the Indian contract pointed to a weaker start despite the global advance. Higher oil prices and supply concerns were factors in investors' assessment of Indian markets ahead of the open.
Oil costs are particularly significant in India, which imports most of its energy needs. Reuters said rising crude prices could fuel inflation, widen the fiscal deficit and hurt Indian companies' profits. That puts Brent's rise above $115 in the broader context of energy market moves, as higher costs can flow through to the economy and companies. Meanwhile, preliminary activity indicators for October showed continued expansion in services and manufacturing, with the two indexes moving in different directions from their September readings. The activity data came ahead of the release of the September industrial production estimate.
The HSBC Flash survey for October showed the services activity index rising to 56.2 from 55.2 in September, while the broad manufacturing purchasing managers' index slipped to 54.9 from 55.1. HSBC said manufacturers' new export orders recorded their fastest increase since June 2025. Input cost inflation also eased, and selling price increases slowed to their weakest pace in about four years. The details paint a mixed picture of activity: improvement in services and export orders, alongside a modest decline in the overall manufacturing reading. The survey readings were published on Oct. 23 and are preliminary indicators for October, not final data for the month.
India's previous official industrial production reading showed annual growth of 8.0% in August, compared with a quick estimate of 6.7% in July. Manufacturing grew 9.0% in August, according to India's statistics ministry. The quick estimate for the September index of industrial production was scheduled for release on Oct. 28. The available information did not establish a specific forecast for September growth, so no numerical estimate can be presented as the market forecast. The ministry typically releases the quick estimate on the 28th of each month, or on the following business day if the date falls on a holiday.
The Indian industrial data release coincided with the second day of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on Oct. 27 and 28. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh was scheduled to hold a news conference on Oct. 28 at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time. The Associated Press report expected the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at Wednesday's meeting, with investors awaiting Warsh's remarks on next steps. The committee's next meeting was scheduled for Dec. 8 and 9, 2026. The Fed meeting and India's industrial production data gave investors two near-term events to watch, alongside oil price movements and the futures signal ahead of the market open.