GE Vernova Expects Gas Order Prices to Rise 50% in 2026, Backlog to Exceed $200 Billion
Key Facts
GE Vernova expects prices for gas equipment orders per kilowatt to rise about 50% over full-year 2026 compared with full-year 2025, management said on its third-quarter earnings call. The estimate sets out a year-over-year comparison of order prices, not a general forecast for equipment prices in 2026. Third-quarter data showed the signing of orders and slot reservation agreements for 11 gigawatts of capacity, alongside shipments of 5 gigawatts, according to the call transcript. Management said third-quarter order prices exceeded fourth-quarter 2025 levels by more than 20% per kilowatt. It attributed this to higher turbine prices and a larger share of aeroderivative turbines. The figures matter across the supply cycle: the company said it expects backlog to exceed $200 billion in the fourth quarter and to end 2026 with at least 130 gigawatts of contracted gas equipment.
The company, however, expects the price per kilowatt for gas orders in the fourth quarter to decline compared with the third quarter as the equipment mix changes. On the earnings call, it said this reflects a lower share of aeroderivative turbines and a higher relative share of 50-hertz units. The difference shows that average quarterly order prices are affected by the types of units sold as well as price levels. In the third quarter, management said demand for turbines came from a base of about 100 customers in 25 countries. Traditional customers accounted for nearly 80% of that base, compared with 20% for data centers. The company added that power-sector orders totaled $5.4 billion in the third quarter, while data-center orders in the segment have exceeded $6 billion since the start of the year, including about $1.4 billion during the quarter.
At the company level, orders totaled $29 billion in the third quarter, up 96% organically, according to a GE Vernova statement. Backlog rose $20 billion quarter over quarter to $197 billion, driven by power equipment and services. That followed second-quarter orders of $24.2 billion and 88% organic growth, with backlog increasing by $13 billion. During the second quarter, gas equipment backlog and slot reservations rose from 100 to 116 gigawatts. Third-quarter figures indicate continued growth in orders and backlog between the periods, while orders, slot reservation agreements and shipments remain separate measures. CEO Scott Strazik also forecast that each gigawatt of HA turbines would generate half a billion dollars in high-margin service revenue over its first 20 years of operation.
The company raised its financial guidance for fiscal 2026 in October, according to its filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The revenue range is now $46.5 billion to $47.5 billion, compared with a previous forecast of $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion. It also raised its adjusted EBITDA margin range to 13.5%–14.5% from 12%–14%. The free cash flow range increased to $16–17 billion from $11.5–12.5 billion. The revisions come as backlog reached $197 billion at the end of the third quarter, with the company expecting it to exceed $200 billion in the fourth quarter. The company also said it expects to end 2026 with at least 130 gigawatts of contracted gas equipment, with margins improving in the fourth quarter.
In its turbine outlook, the 50% increase estimate compares gas order prices per kilowatt in 2026 and 2025, while the fourth-quarter forecast reflects the effect of the unit mix. Potential service revenue per gigawatt of HA turbines is a separate indicator of business tied to equipment after sale, with management's stated period covering the turbine's first 20 years of operation. Power-segment figures also showed data-center orders exceeding $6 billion since the start of 2026, but those orders alone do not represent the company's total orders or total turbine demand. These indicators continue to place gas operations alongside the power grid and services in the demand picture presented by management in its results. The company's shares closed at $895.08 on October 27, according to EL7 data.
In a separate development reported by Reuters on October 28, GE Vernova announced an agreement to acquire Trench Group, a specialist in high-voltage grid equipment, for the equivalent of $9 billion. The company said the deal is expected to close in late 2027. In premarket trading on October 28, the stock rose 4.1% to $931.84, Reuters reported. The premarket move followed the earnings and financial outlook announcements and the acquisition agreement. Under the announced timeline, the deal is expected to close in late 2027, while the operating guidance targets revenue, margins and cash flow for fiscal 2026. The company's fourth-quarter outlook includes backlog exceeding $200 billion and ending the year with at least 130 gigawatts of contracted gas equipment.