$19.30 to $20.10 a Share: FedEx Raises Earnings Outlook in March
Key Facts
On March 19, 2026, FedEx raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted earnings-per-share forecast to a range of $19.30 to $20.10, compared with a previous forecast of $17.80 to $19.00. The update came as part of its fiscal third-quarter results announcement, for the quarter ended February 28, not in a new announcement on October 28. The company also raised its fiscal-year revenue growth estimate to 6.0%–6.5%, from 5%–6% in its previous forecast. In the same release, it reported quarterly revenue of $24.0 billion, compared with $22.2 billion in the year-earlier quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $5.25, compared with $4.51, according to the fiscal-quarter results the company published in March.
Adjusted operating income rose to $1.62 billion in the quarter, from $1.51 billion a year earlier, but the adjusted operating margin fell to 6.7% from 6.8%. FedEx said the improvement in consolidated operating income reflected strong yields on U.S. domestic and International Priority packages, along with continued savings from transformation initiatives and higher domestic package volumes. Those gains were offset by higher wages, incentive compensation and purchased transportation, as well as the financial impact of changes in global trade policies and the grounding of MD-11 aircraft. FedEx Freight’s operating results also declined during the quarter amid planned separation costs, lower shipments and higher wages, partly offset by improved yields. Chief Financial Officer John Dietrich said the results and improved outlook reflected “the resilience of our business and the quality of our execution.”
FedEx projected more than $1 billion in permanent cost reductions through transformation savings, compared with a previous estimate of $1 billion. At the same time, it lowered its fiscal 2026 capital spending ceiling to $4.1 billion, from its December forecast of $4.5 billion. The company said spending would focus on network and efficiency improvements, fleet and facility modernization, and automation. The adjusted earnings-per-share range excluded certain costs, including FedEx Freight separation costs and business improvement initiatives. The company also provided an earnings-per-share estimate before mark-to-market accounting adjustments for retirement plans, in a range of $16.05 to $16.85.
Quarterly net income included a $99 million tax benefit, equivalent to $0.41 per diluted share, from recognition of a foreign tax loss carryforward. FedEx said it could not forecast mark-to-market accounting adjustments for retirement plans, and therefore did not provide a fiscal 2026 forecast for earnings per share or an effective tax rate under generally accepted accounting principles. The company tied its outlook to assumptions about fuel prices and the economic outlook at the time, and assumed no further adverse economic, geopolitical or international trade developments. On June 23, FedEx announced its fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results, reporting annual revenue of $94.7 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $20.24. Revenue was $87.9 billion and adjusted earnings per share were $18.19 in the previous fiscal year, according to the company’s announcement.
In its June announcement, the company also provided different guidance for calendar 2026, including expected revenue growth of about 11% and adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations of $16.90 to $18.10. That estimate differs from the March fiscal-year range because it covers a different accounting period and uses a different measure. FedEx said in June that the improvement in adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter reflected continued strength in yields on U.S. domestic and International Priority packages, along with transformation savings and higher domestic package and international export volumes. The company scheduled its third-quarter calendar 2026 results call for October 28 at 4:30 p.m. Central Time. FedEx shares closed at $307.1 on October 27, according to EL7 data.