Copper Scrap Restrictions Warned as Demand Seen Reaching 42 Million Tonnes by 2040

Key Facts

Participants in the non-ferrous metals session at the Bureau of International Recycling conference in Malaga warned that growing restrictions on exports of recovered metals could hinder the expansion of the recycling industry. The warning comes as global copper demand is expected to rise to 42 million tonnes by 2040, an increase of 50% from its current level. Scrap is becoming increasingly important to the supply market: around one-third of the raw materials used in global copper production in 2024 came from recycled copper. Participants said, "The growing trend toward imposing restrictions on exports of recovered metals is likely to hinder the expansion of the recycling industry." The session was held on 26 October 2026, as debate over trade restrictions and supply security widens.

Policies in force or announced differ from one country to another. In the United States, the White House announced in July 2025 an intention to require producers to sell 25% of domestically produced high-grade copper scrap within the country. The White House fact sheet also said the Commerce Department had recommended a licensing requirement for exports of this scrap. Reuters reports that Washington plans to begin restricting copper scrap exports in 2027, while retaining at least 25% of high-grade scrap for domestic use. This approach targets a specific category of scrap, while the licensing recommendation remains separate from the domestic sales requirement.

South Africa's framework combines priority access for local users to scrap before it is exported, tighter controls on permit applications and export duties on scrap metal. The duties range from 10% to 20% and have applied since 1 August 2021, alongside the price preference system. Authorities extended the system, according to the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa, through 31 July 2027. The South African Revenue Service says the duties are intended to make higher-quality, lower-cost scrap available to local foundries and manufacturers. This framework reflects a broader set of tools than the announced U.S. measure concerning a share of high-grade scrap.

The scale of European trade flows highlights the scrap market's links to Asian buyers. Copper alloy scrap accounted for 41.7% of European Union copper scrap exports in 2025, with around 80% of those shipments going to China and India, according to Mining.com.au. The United States exported about 957 thousand metric tonnes of copper scrap and waste in 2024, with more than 40% shipped to China, according to a report cited by Reuters. These figures show that restrictions could redirect existing trade flows between markets and smelters. Domestic buyers' ability to absorb scrap also depends on its quality and suitability for processing.

The risks cited by the recycling sector include the possibility that confining scrap to a domestic market without enough capacity to absorb it could create a surplus that weighs on prices. A Mining.com.au report explained that export restrictions could lower domestic prices, squeeze recyclers' margins and cash flows, and weaken incentives to collect and sort scrap and invest in its recovery. BIR conference participants also warned that reduced sales outlets could limit recycling companies' investment capacity. In South Africa, a 2026 parliamentary committee report said the combination of the price preference and export duties could, under certain market conditions, shift economic value from recyclers to small-scale mill producers, potentially affecting incentives to collect scrap. Two policy reviews were in their final stages when the report was prepared.

Copper scrap is a secondary source of metal, helping smelters and manufacturers supplement supplies of concentrates and primary cathodes. But its potential to replace primary supplies depends on the scrap's quality, availability and suitability for processing. Analysts cited by Reuters say the U.S. impact could be limited in the near term because the country already consumes more than 40% of the copper scrap it produces. Even so, the balance between keeping scrap in the domestic market and preserving returns for recycling companies is tied to smelters' and manufacturers' capacity to use it. The planned start of the U.S. restriction in 2027 and the extension of South Africa's price preference system through 31 July 2027 remain the next milestones in these policies.