Russian Budget Forecasts Put China Gas Price at $247.90 in 2026
Key Facts
Russian budget documents forecast that the average price of gas Gazprom sells to China will be $247.90 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2026, compared with $562 for other buyers outside the Commonwealth of Independent States. The gap between the two prices is about 56%, according to a comparison reported by Eurasianet. These are estimates in budget documents, not final prices for every shipment during the year. The comparison also does not establish that Moscow granted Beijing a separate discount under a contractual agreement. The estimate places China’s price clearly below that of the other buyers included in the comparison.
The figures point to a widening gap from 2025 estimates, when the price of gas for China was $240.30 per 1,000 cubic meters, compared with $406.50 for other buyers, according to Potok, citing a Moscow Times report on the budget documents. The projected price for China rose between the two years, as did the projected price for other buyers, but the two levels moved by different amounts. The report concluded that the gap had widened considerably since 2025. This trajectory compares annual estimates, not actual prices for each contract or shipment. It therefore describes the difference between the markets as reflected in budget forecasts, without settling the commercial terms of each supply deal.
Gazprom’s supplies reach China through the Power of Siberia pipeline under a 30-year deal with a stated value of $400 billion that began at the end of 2019, according to Reuters. In 2025, exports through the pipeline rose by about a quarter to 38.8 billion cubic meters, exceeding its planned annual capacity of 38 billion cubic meters. The Shanghai government said the pipeline’s eastern route entered full operation in December 2024, with annual capacity of 38 billion cubic meters. The pipeline runs 5,111 kilometers from the city of Heihe on the Russian border to Shanghai. This infrastructure links long-term supply agreements with physical flows that exceeded planned annual capacity last year.
Assessing actual prices remains difficult: the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says there are no official published figures for what Beijing pays for Russian gas. Its analysis drew on Chinese customs data and a leaked annex to forecasts by Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development, which included prices and volumes for pipeline gas in 2022, 2023 and 2024. The analysis estimated that Russia sold gas to China for $40 to $60 less per 1,000 cubic meters than Turkmen gas, even though Russian gas enters China closer to major consumption centers. Its long-term comparison also found that the price of Russian gas for China was up to 30% below the price at which it was sold to Western Europe. The analysis described this comparison as theoretical because the fields supplying China cannot supply Europe.
In volume terms, Russian supplies to China could reach 40.5 billion cubic meters in 2026, according to a Carnegie estimate conditional on the delivery pace recorded during the first seven months continuing through December. That estimate puts potential annual volume above the 38.8 billion cubic meters exported in 2025, but depends on the pace remaining unchanged for the rest of the year. Russia’s official schedule points to the first reading of the budget bill in the State Duma on October 29, among three readings scheduled for the bill. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics calendar lists the release of the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index report on October 31 at 9:30. The index appears in the release calendar as a monthly report, with no further detail in the time slot.