Tether Trading Jumps Nearly 800% on Brazil Election Day as Companies Lead Activity
Key Facts
USDT trading volume on Brazil’s Mercado Bitcoin jumped nearly 800% on Sunday, October 25, the day of the presidential election runoff, compared with the previous Sunday, and exceeded three times the average for the four preceding Sundays, CoinDesk reported, citing the platform. Mercado Bitcoin said corporate accounts generated 78% of total trading on election day, versus 22% for retail accounts. The platform attributed the main activity to companies seeking to protect their treasuries while traditional markets were closed. The surge put dollar-pegged stablecoins at the center of some companies’ response to currency risk on an election day that brought sharp shifts in investor expectations. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the presidency with 51.8% of the vote, leading his rival Flavio Bolsonaro by about 4.4 million votes, according to the Associated Press.
The increase in activity was not limited to USDT on Mercado Bitcoin: Bitcoin trading volume on the platform rose 865% from the previous Sunday, CoinDesk reported. On platforms tracked by Biscoint, USDT trading volume against the real rose 150% on election day, while USDC volume increased 318% compared with the previous Sunday. On the Monday after the election, combined USDT and USDC trading volume reached about 1.84 billion reais, equivalent to 350 million dollars, up 65% from the previous week. The figures show activity extending beyond election day, with stablecoin trading rising across platforms and trading pairs. A research analyst at Mercado Bitcoin said USDT and USDC allow users to “convert part of your assets into dollars simply, at any time, and starting with low amounts.”
The appetite for digital hedging coincided with a swift reversal in market bets on the election outcome. Reuters said investors had positioned themselves ahead of the runoff for a Flavio Bolsonaro victory after he led in the first round, believing his presidency could lead to a more market-friendly government and an improvement in the fiscal position. But Lula’s victory overturned those expectations and triggered a sharp market correction, the report said. Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index had closed on Friday about 7% above its level before the first round, while the real was about 5% stronger against the dollar, according to Reuters via MarketScreener. In the following sessions, EL7 data showed the dollar at 5.0238 reais at the close on October 21, then 5.3767 reais at the close on October 26.
The divergence extended to Bitcoin trading on Binance, where volume against the real rose 370% around election day, while the global BTC/USDT pair’s volume fell 25% during the period cited in the CoinDesk report. This points to differing trading patterns depending on the counter-currency, as some participants shifted toward pairs denominated in reais. Mercado Bitcoin said companies seeking to protect their treasuries were the main driver of trading volume on its platform. The company’s research analyst explained that stablecoins allow users to convert part of their assets into dollars “at any time” and in low amounts. This channel offers a way to manage currency risk during the hours when traditional foreign exchange and stock markets are closed, according to the report’s context.
Upcoming economic dates are centered on the release of data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey, PNAD Contínua, with the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics scheduling its monthly release for September 2026 on October 30. The institute also scheduled its quarterly release for the period from July to September 2026 for November 18. On monetary policy, the Brazilian Central Bank will hold meetings of its Monetary Policy Committee, Copom, on November 3 and 4. The meeting minutes are scheduled for release on November 10, according to the central bank’s calendar. These dates follow a wave of repricing after the election, as investors await the data and minutes in the following weeks.