Befesa raises 2026 EBITDA forecast to €286–296 million
Key Facts
Befesa’s board decided on October 28 to raise its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to a range of €286 million to €296 million, including an expected contribution of €26 million from a U.S. critical minerals credit. The company said the expected credit is worth about $29 million and that it intends to record it in the fourth quarter of 2026 as a reduction in operating costs. The decision increases the announced range, but part of the increase reflects the expected tax credit. Excluding its impact, Befesa raised the lower end of its annual forecast to €260 million, while keeping the upper end at €270 million. The credit’s value, timing of recognition and receipt remain subject to review by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service and fulfillment of eligibility and accounting requirements.
In July, the company had kept its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast at €250–270 million, equivalent to annual growth of between 3% and 11% compared with €243 million in 2025. After the update, the range excluding the credit is €260–270 million, meaning the revision raised the lower end by €10 million without changing the upper end. This shows that the credit accounts for most of the increase to the new overall range of €286–296 million. Befesa recorded adjusted EBITDA of €124 million in the first half of 2026, up 11% from €112 million in the same period of 2025. In the second quarter alone, EBITDA rose 17% to €66 million from €56 million a year earlier.
The credit is linked to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, and Befesa says its zinc refining facility in Morrisville, North Carolina, produces high-purity special high-grade zinc, making that production eligible. Section 45X provides a production credit for eligible components, including critical minerals such as zinc, at 10% of eligible refining or processing costs. The U.S. Internal Revenue Service’s notice defines zinc as one of the covered critical minerals and sets the credit for eligible critical minerals at 10% of production costs. The company said it expects to record the 2026 amount in the fourth quarter as a reduction in operating costs under IAS 20. It used an exchange rate of $1.12 per euro to convert the amount, estimating a value of about €26 million.
Befesa submitted a claim to the IRS for fiscal year 2025 of about $34 million, equivalent to around €30 million at the exchange rate it disclosed. The company treats this claim as a one-time benefit and does not include it in adjusted EBITDA for 2026. The cash flow related to the 2025 claim is expected in the first half of 2027, not during 2026. The company therefore kept its 2026 operating cash flow guidance at single-digit growth and its expected capital expenditure at about €70 million. It said the timing of recognition and receipt of the credit, along with its final value, remains subject to IRS review and fulfillment of eligibility and accounting requirements.
The company now expects the credit to recur in fiscal years 2026 through 2033, with an annual contribution of between €25 million and €30 million, subject to continued eligibility and the applicable regulatory framework. It expects the contribution to be phased down to 75% in 2031, then 50% in 2032 and 25% in 2033. These forecasts set out a path spanning several years, but Befesa tied its continuation to eligibility and regulations and kept tax review as a condition affecting the amount and timing. On the balance sheet, the company’s net leverage was 2.18 times in June 2026, compared with 2.70 times in June 2025. The company scheduled the release of its third-quarter 2026 statement and conference call for October 29.