BASF Raises Lower End of 2026 Earnings Forecast After Quarterly EBITDA Rises 15%
Key Facts
BASF raised the lower end of its 2026 forecast for operating income before special items after the measure rose 15% in the third quarter to 1.6 billion euros, according to a company statement published on October 28. Quarterly sales also rose 14% to 16.4 billion euros, compared with 14.3 billion euros a year earlier. Chief Executive Officer Markus Kamieth said strong performance in core businesses since the start of the year gives the company confidence to raise its earnings outlook range. The company raised its annual range to 7.4–7.8 billion euros, from 6.9–7.7 billion euros previously. It kept its 2026 free cash flow forecast at 1.5–2.3 billion euros.
Sales came in above the analyst average estimate of 15,665 million euros, while EBITDA before special items exceeded the average forecast of 1,495 million euros. By contrast, net income was 155 million euros, below the average estimate of 196 million, and reported earnings per share came in at 0.18 euros versus 0.26 euros expected. October estimates were compiled monthly by Vara Research from independent analysts; BASF says it neither adopts nor endorses them. Net income fell from 172 million euros in the third quarter of 2025, and reported earnings per share declined from 0.19 euros. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding special items and amortization of intangible assets, rose to 0.72 euros from 0.52 euros.
The company attributed sales growth mainly to a 12% increase in prices and a 2% rise in volumes. By segment, BASF posted earnings gains in Chemicals, Nutrition & Care, Materials and Industrial Solutions, more than offsetting declines in Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies. EBITDA included negative special items of 437 million euros, mainly related to restructuring costs and the settlement of a legal dispute in the Care Chemicals business. The company also recorded a 318 million euro impairment in the Monomers division under depreciation and amortization. These items highlight the difference between improving operating earnings before special items and net income and reported earnings per share during the quarter.
The results came as BASF said global chemical production had nearly stopped growing compared with a strong quarter a year earlier, while U.S. chemical production fell 4.5%. Brent crude rose from about 72 dollars a barrel at the start of the quarter to more than 100 dollars at its end, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The company had raised its annual EBITDA forecast in July to 6.9–7.7 billion euros from 6.2–7.0 billion euros, while keeping its free cash flow forecast at 1.5–2.3 billion euros. The latest update raises the previous range again, while leaving the cash flow forecast unchanged. The company lists its Capital Markets Day for November 23, 2026, and scheduled its full-year results conference for analysts and investors for February 26, 2027.