BASF Raises 2026 Earnings Forecast Floor to €7.4 Billion After Third-Quarter Profit Growth of 15%
Key Facts
BASF raised the floor of its 2026 forecast for earnings before special items to €7.4 billion from €6.9 billion, and lifted the top end to €7.8 billion from €7.7 billion, after operating profit grew in the third quarter. Earnings before special items were €1.6 billion, up 15% year on year, the company said in its results statement. The figure exceeded the average analyst estimate of €1.495 billion, according to BASF’s published estimates. Quarterly sales rose 14% to €16.4 billion, compared with €14.3 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Chief Executive Markus Kamieth said the performance of the core business since the start of the year “gives us confidence to narrow and raise our forecast for earnings before special items.”
BASF attributed the sales increase mainly to prices rising 12% from a year earlier and volumes increasing 2%. The company said earnings improved in its Chemicals, Nutrition & Care, Materials and Industrial Solutions segments. Profit growth in those segments more than offset declines in Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies. The results reflect growth in activity and revenue alongside mixed performance across the company’s units. BASF did not raise its full-year forecast across the board, but adjusted both ends of its earnings-before-special-items range as announced.
The latest forecast increase followed an adjustment by the company in July, when it raised its annual range to €6.9–€7.7 billion from €6.2–€7.0 billion. In the second quarter of 2026, BASF posted earnings before special items of €2.449 billion, compared with €1.595 billion in the second quarter of 2025. Sales for that quarter also rose to €17.206 billion from €14.788 billion. In the third quarter, earnings before special items exceeded analyst estimates, but net income still fell year on year. Net income was €155 million, compared with €172 million in the third quarter of 2025, while earnings per share declined to €0.18 from €0.19.
Free cash flow improved to €523 million in the third quarter, up €125 million from the year-earlier period. The company left its 2026 free cash flow forecast unchanged at a range of €1.5 billion to €2.3 billion. It also maintained its economic assumptions for the year: GDP growth of 2.5%, industrial production growth of 2.0% and chemical production growth of 1.8%. Its assumptions include an annual average Brent crude price of $80 a barrel. BASF warned that a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz would put severe pressure on economic activity, and said a credible framework reached quickly could add momentum to growth.
BASF scheduled its 2026 fiscal-year results conference for analysts and investors for February 26, 2027. The company is due to present its annual results at the event listed in its investor calendar. The date follows the October update to its annual earnings forecast, while the free cash flow range remains unchanged. The annual results are the next announced milestone for tracking the company’s performance during 2026.