European Gas Storage at 73% Leaves Market Exposed to Cold Weather and Supply Disruptions
Key Facts
European gas inventories stood at 73% of capacity at the time of Equinor’s earnings call on October 28, the lowest level for this time of year since 2011, Chief Financial Officer Torgrim Reitan said. Reitan described the market as "very tight," warning that a cold spell could make it more vulnerable to volatility. The warning came as the company said flows of liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were very low. Reitan added that Equinor expects flows to remain at extremely limited levels until the conflict is resolved and transit is safe. Together, these factors combine low storage levels with a disrupted supply route at a time when Europe needs gas during the heating season.
Inventories typically provide between 25% and 30% of the European Union’s winter gas consumption, according to Reuters. The rest of supply remains tied to pipeline and liquefied natural gas flows, particularly imports from Norway and the United States. That makes reduced inventories more important in meeting demand through the winter, as the bloc continues to rely on incoming supplies. Reuters said a cold spell near the end of the heating season, when inventories are likely to be at their lowest, could lead to significant price volatility. It added that predicting the price level in such a case is difficult.
The supply warning coincided with strong third-quarter results for Equinor. Reported operating income was $11.95 billion, compared with $5.27 billion in the same period a year earlier, the company said. Equinor attributed support for that figure to higher commodity prices and strong refining margins. It also said higher liquids prices and European gas prices were the main factors affecting its adjusted results, while international shipments below the company’s share of production reduced sales volumes. Reuters reported that adjusted pre-tax profit rose to $12.4 billion from $6.2 billion a year earlier, beating the average forecast of 21 analysts of $12.19 billion.
Equinor’s equity production was 2.166 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter, up 2% year over year, according to the company. It said higher production in the quarter enabled it to benefit from higher prices, and raised its 2026 oil and gas production growth guidance to about 4% from 3% previously. On the stock, Reuters reported that the company’s shares had risen 86% since the start of the year and were trading at record levels in recent weeks. Equinor shares, listed under the symbol EQNR, closed at $47.06 on October 27, according to EL7 data. These figures highlight the company’s performance during a period supported by energy prices, alongside the supply risks it warned about in the European market.
The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results on February 4, 2027. Until then, inventory levels and shipment flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain key factors to watch in the European gas market during the heating season. Weather risks take on added importance near the end of the season, when inventories may be at their lowest levels. In this context, Reuters warned that a late cold spell could increase price volatility, without it being possible to determine how high prices might rise. Equinor’s warning reflects the market’s sensitivity to the combination of winter demand and limited available supply.