PROG Holdings Cuts 2026 Revenue Outlook to $3.015–$3.050 Billion

Key Facts

PROG Holdings cut its revenue outlook for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, to $3.015–$3.050 billion, from the previous estimate of $3.025–$3.100 billion. It also lowered its outlook for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to $345–$355 million, from $355–$375 million, and for diluted non-GAAP earnings per share to $4.70–$4.85, from $4.75–$5.00. The company attributed the revisions to “ongoing macroeconomic pressures on many of our consumers.” In the earnings statement, Chief Executive Steve Michaels said: “We are taking a more cautious view of the consumer as we approach year-end, but the fundamentals of our business remain strong.” The annual outlook cut comes despite higher revenue and net earnings in the third quarter.

Revenue from continuing operations totaled $725.8 million in the third quarter, up 25.6% from the same period in 2025, while net earnings from continuing operations were $37.5 million, compared with $32.3 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization were $80.0 million, compared with $65.7 million in the third quarter of 2025. But the margin on those earnings fell to 11.0% of revenue, from 11.4% a year earlier. FactSet analysts expected revenue of $737.8 million and adjusted earnings per share of $1.09, according to MT Newswires as reported by Yahoo Finance. Revenue and adjusted earnings therefore fell short of both estimates, alongside the company’s narrowing of its annual outlook range.

Consolidated gross merchandise volume was $912.0 million, up 58.9% year over year, and the quarter ended with net leverage of 1.5 times. But performance varied across businesses: Progressive Leasing revenue fell 0.7% to $552.7 million, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization declined 12.3% to $56.5 million. By contrast, Four revenue rose 113.8% to $37.2 million. Michaels said Four is delivering “triple-digit growth with profitability,” and that Purchasing Power is performing as expected ahead of its most important quarter of the year. Purchasing Power posted revenue of $131.8 million and gross merchandise volume of $161.2 million, up 12.3% on a standalone basis compared with the third quarter of 2025.

PROG acquired Purchasing Power on January 2, 2026, and the third-quarter results include its business from the acquisition date. In its results, the company said pressure on consumers prompted it to lower its revenue and earnings ranges for the fiscal year, while its fourth-quarter outlook called for revenue of $827 million to $862 million and diluted non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.20 to $1.32. The company said its assumptions include the initial delivery of about 80% of the shares under the accelerated share repurchase program, while excluding any remaining shares until final settlement from its outlook calculations. The company announced plans to enter into an agreement to repurchase $100 million in common shares, with the transactions expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2027. It said, however, that it does not guarantee that the agreement will be entered into as planned, or at all.

The repurchase announcement follows the company’s statement in the second quarter that a decline in net leverage to about 1.7 times, from about 2.5 times immediately after the acquisition, encouraged it to resume share buybacks. PROG repaid $50 million of acquisition-related debt during that quarter and repurchased $10.2 million in shares. At the end of the third quarter, cash was $108.9 million and total debt was $872.0 million, and the company said it had reduced total debt by $326.6 million since the acquisition. It also repurchased $36.7 million in shares during the quarter, at an average price of $41.47 per share. The board added $237 million to the repurchase authorization, raising the amount available for future purchases to $500 million, and extended the authorization until the earlier of October 26, 2029, or the completion of $500 million in total purchases.

The company’s shares fell 3.01% to $28.72 following the announcement, according to Investing.com. An MT Newswires report via Yahoo Finance linked the results to analyst estimates, noting that revenue and adjusted earnings per share came in below FactSet expectations. The fourth-quarter outlook also includes adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $86 million to $96 million and diluted earnings per share of $1.04 to $1.16. The annual outlook covers the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. The company expects to complete the accelerated repurchase transactions in the first quarter of 2027, while the agreement remains a stated intention and is not guaranteed to be executed.