ONEOK Raises 2026 Earnings Outlook to $4.09–$4.27 Billion After Third-Quarter Growth
Key Facts
ONEOK raised its 2026 net income outlook to a range of $4.09 billion to $4.27 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $8.5–$8.6 billion after reporting third-quarter results on October 27. The company said results benefited from higher natural gas liquids, refined products and natural gas volumes, as well as increased optimization and marketing activity. The update follows an August outlook increase, when the company set net income at $3.41–$3.79 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $8.2–$8.5 billion. ONEOK also expects capital spending of about $3.5 billion in 2026, attributing the update to additional growth opportunities and expenses related to the Brazos acquisition. The new guidance puts operating performance and the expected contribution from the acquisition at the center of the company’s revised annual estimates.
At the operating level, natural gas liquids throughput rose 6% in the third quarter from the same period a year earlier, with a 16% increase in the Gulf Coast and Permian. Refined products shipments increased 6%, while natural gas processing in the Permian rose 4%. Chief Executive Pierce Norton said, "Higher Permian volumes and our employees’ continued execution in integrating our systems contributed to ONEOK’s third-quarter results." The company linked the improvement to higher volumes across its businesses, as well as optimization and marketing activity. The increases across natural gas liquids throughput, refined products shipments and gas processing point to contributions from several operating activities, while the Gulf Coast and Permian recorded the largest regional increase cited in natural gas liquids throughput.
Third-quarter results included a one-time, non-cash tax benefit of $336 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, related to the company’s reorganization and the treatment of its minority investment. The benefit is relevant when assessing net income attributable to ONEOK, as it represents an exceptional item in the period’s results. The company, in turn, highlighted improved operating activity as one reason for raising its annual outlook, alongside the acquisition contribution and additional growth opportunities. It said its new guidance includes an expected contribution of about $75 million from Brazos assets in 2026. Of that amount, about $50 million is expected to flow through to adjusted EBITDA after transaction costs.
ONEOK completed its acquisition of Brazos assets in the Midland Basin in the Permian in October, after announcing an agreement to buy them for $4.425 billion in cash. At the time of the deal announcement, the company said the acquisition was expected to immediately increase earnings and free cash flow per share. In its latest update, ONEOK included the assets’ expected contribution in its 2026 guidance, along with capital spending related to the acquisition. The company also announced a $9 billion minority investment and said the deal and investment would accelerate deleveraging to 3.25 times debt to adjusted EBITDA, without issuing common shares. This financial context provides background for the expansion of gas-gathering and processing assets in the Midland Basin and the company’s announced debt-reduction plan.
On debt management, ONEOK said it retired nearly $5.5 billion of principal in September 2026. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings also raised the company’s credit rating to BBB+. In October, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.07 per share, equivalent to $4.28 annually on an annualized basis. These developments combine higher earnings guidance, debt reduction and a cash distribution to shareholders. ONEOK also said its third-quarter earnings conference was scheduled for October 28, 2026, at 11 a.m. Eastern Time, or 10 a.m. Central Time.
The company said it expects substantial earnings growth in 2027 from Brazos assets, completed and ongoing growth projects, and the commercial optimization of its systems. The outlook follows the inclusion of Brazos’ contribution in this year’s guidance, as the company continues to execute its projects and improve its marketing business. In trading, EL7 data showed ONEOK shares closed at $92.85 on October 20 and $96.36 on October 26. The comparison covers two closing prices six days apart, while the data did not specify the reason for the move. The conference scheduled for October 28 will put the latest results and guidance before investors after the annual estimates were raised.