Cheesecake Factory Targets $4.425 Billion in Revenue, Plans 27 Restaurant Openings in 2027
Key Facts
The Cheesecake Factory is targeting total revenue of about $4.425 billion in fiscal 2027 and plans to open up to 27 restaurants, management said on its third-quarter earnings call on October 27, 2026. The guidance follows the company’s second consecutive quarter of record revenue, according to the CEO. He said third-quarter margins and earnings also exceeded the company’s expectations. The CFO described the 2027 outlook as preliminary and reflective of what the company currently knows. He added that its sales growth and margin assumptions are closer to the company’s historical targets than to an extrapolation of more recent momentum.
The company reported revenue of $1,033.4 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, compared with $907.2 million in the same period of 2025, according to its earnings release. At The Cheesecake Factory brand, comparable sales rose 15.2%, driven mainly by a 9.5% increase in customer traffic, according to the earnings presentation. The brand’s restaurant-level profit margin rose 240 basis points year over year to 18.7% in the quarter. Comparable sales at Flower Child also increased 11% over the same period. Flower Child’s adjusted mature restaurant profit margin was 20.2%, metrics management cited in its presentation on the brand’s performance.
The 2027 restaurant opening plan comprises 11 to 13 Flower Child locations, 4 to 6 The Cheesecake Factory locations, 4 to 5 North Italia locations and 6 to 7 FRC Group restaurants. Management said about three-quarters of the planned openings would take place in the second half of the year. For The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, management said its expansion strategy depends on the availability of suitable sites. It added that it could open more of the brand’s restaurants if appropriate projects were available. Management tied an increase in Flower Child openings to the brand’s performance, which included the comparable sales growth and profit margin recorded in the third quarter.
At the targeted revenue level, the company expects its annual net income margin in 2027 to range from 6.0% to 6.1%. Management said the range is consistent with its long-term goal of expanding margins by 25 to 35 basis points annually. It said it expects overall inflation in commodities, labor and other operating expenses to be in the low- to mid-single-digit range. By contrast, it expects modest leverage from general and administrative expenses, depreciation and pre-opening costs, totaling about 10 to 20 basis points compared with 2026. The CFO said the company would update its assumptions as sales and margin trends become clearer.
In the nearer term, management expects fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of between $1.04 billion and $1.05 billion. It said the estimate takes into account holiday timing and capacity constraints during peak weeks. The company also expects cash capital expenditures of about $220 million in 2027 to support new unit development and restaurant maintenance. Management said it is cautious about extrapolating the recent acceleration in sales and described it as too early to treat as a stable trend. It added that “it is prudent for us to remain conservative in our outlook” until the picture becomes clearer.
On the shareholder front, the board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share, payable on November 24, 2026, to shareholders of record on November 10. In after-hours trading on October 27, the stock fell 0.4% after the earnings announcement, according to Investing.com. The company released its third-quarter results after the market close that day. The stock closed at $114.39 on October 21, then $112.44 on October 22 and $108.37 on October 23. It closed at $110.13 on October 26 and $108.47 on October 27, according to EL7 data.