BASF raises lower end of 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to €7.4 billion
Key Facts
On October 28, BASF raised its 2026 forecast range for EBITDA before special items to €7.4–7.8 billion, from €6.9–7.7 billion previously, citing the performance of its core businesses since the start of the year. Chief Executive Markus Kamieth said the performance “gives us confidence to narrow and raise our forecast range for EBITDA before special items.” This measure tracks earnings before special items and is separate from EBIT, which posted a loss in the quarter. Raising the lower end gives investors a signal that the company’s outlook for core profitability this year has improved. But quarterly results also showed pressure on other indicators, including net income and operating cash flow.
Third-quarter sales rose on improved prices and higher volumes; BASF said prices increased 12% and volumes rose 2% year on year. The company attributed earnings growth in Chemicals, Nutrition & Care, Materials and Industrial Solutions to offsetting declines in Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies. It also reported lower earnings in the Other segment, reflecting uneven performance across its units. By contrast, the company’s statement pointed to a positive currency effect and lower volumes in Agricultural Solutions. Earnings were therefore supported by a mix of prices, volumes and performance in specific segments, while some businesses remained weak.
The improvement in EBITDA before special items was not matched by EBIT, which posted a loss of €98 million in the third quarter, compared with a profit of €232 million a year earlier. Depreciation and amortization included an impairment of €318 million in the Monomers division. Net income was €155 million, compared with €172 million in the same period of 2025, while earnings per share fell to €0.18 from €0.19. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding special items and amortization of intangible assets, was €0.72, up from €0.52 a year earlier. These indicators show the divergence between adjusted earnings and reported accounting results.
Cash flow from operating activities was €1.1 billion, €275 million below the level in the comparable quarter. The company attributed the decline mainly to €507 million tied up in inventory, particularly because of higher raw material prices. In the comparable period, €6 million was released from inventory. Despite this pressure, free cash flow rose to €523 million, up €125 million year on year. BASF left its 2026 free cash flow forecast range unchanged at €1.5–2.3 billion. The figures put the quarterly improvement in free cash flow alongside the ongoing need to fund working capital.
BASF kept its 2026 economic assumptions, as published in its half-year report, amid continued global geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The assumptions include GDP growth of 2.5%, industrial production growth of 2.0% and chemical production growth of 1.8%. They also assume an average exchange rate of $1.17 per euro and an annual average Brent crude price of $80 per barrel. The company links these assumptions to its full-year estimates and did not revise them in its third-quarter results announcement. They remain in place alongside the raised EBITDA before special items forecast range and unchanged free cash flow outlook.
In the markets, BASF shares listed in Germany were priced at €52.12 and fell 0.23% on October 27, the day before the results announcement. BASFY also closed at $14.57 that day, after a successive decline from $14.80 on October 21 to $14.76 on October 22, then $14.72 on October 23 and $14.63 on October 26. These prices provide context for the shares’ movement before the results and do not reflect trading after the announcement. The company set November 23, 2026, for its Capital Markets Day. Its analyst and investor conference on the 2026 financial year will be held on February 26, 2027.