Likud Leads with 20.8% as Seat Projections Leave Blocs Short of 61-Seat Majority
Key Facts
With 85% of votes counted in Israel’s election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party led with 20.8%, compared with 16.1% for Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, according to the Associated Press. Arab parties had 14.9% in the same snapshot. But local seat projections left the main blocs short of a majority, opening the way for complex coalition negotiations. The projections gave Likud and its allies 53 seats, Yashar and its allies 48, and Arab parties 19. These are media estimates, not official results, and counting was still under way.
The Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs 61 for a majority, according to the Associated Press. None of the main groups reaches that threshold in local projections, making smaller parties pivotal in calculations over forming a government. The agency said the clearest path to an alternative majority could require Eisenkot to cooperate with the parties led by Arabs, which received 14.9% of counted votes. But it described that option as politically difficult. If a majority cannot be assembled, the country could head to a new election early next year, the agency said.
Partial vote shares do not automatically translate into a final distribution of seats, and absentee ballots are still being counted. Elad Naveh, head of the oversight administration at the Central Elections Committee, said the count of those ballots would continue until Thursday evening. The committee estimates there are about half a million, including votes from military personnel and diplomats, according to the Associated Press. The agency expected final results by the end of the week. The official timetable sets publication of the results for November 4, 2026, leaving room for the tally to change before the next political phase begins.
After the results are announced, President Isaac Herzog chooses the person he considers best placed to form a government, usually the leader of the party with the most votes, though he is not bound by that convention, according to the Associated Press. Herzog said he would receive the official results the following week, after which the elected parties would begin the next phase of the political process. If the candidate cannot form a majority coalition within a maximum period of six weeks, other candidates can be tasked with the effort. Coalition talks could end in a new election in the following months if attempts fail, the agency said. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 during a similar period of political deadlock.
Turnout was 77.7% of eligible voters, the highest since 1999, according to the Central Elections Committee, as reported by the Associated Press. Turnout rose by more than 7 percentage points compared with the 2022 election. Likud won 23.4% of the vote in that election, according to the agency, but comparison with its current share remains provisional because the count of 85% is not yet complete. In an earlier update, with about 70% counted, Likud recorded nearly 20%, while the two Arab parties together had 14%. These updates show the picture shifting as counting advances, while seat projections remain subject to the final result.
Tel Aviv Stock Exchange indexes fell on October 28 amid political uncertainty; the TA-125 index dropped 1.7% and the TA-35 1.5%, while the TA-90 fell 3%. The shekel weakened 1% against the dollar to about 3.0843 shekels per dollar, according to The Times of Israel. The chief market economist at Mizrahi Tefahot Bank said investors were waiting for clarity on the shape of the next government and its ability to set fiscal policy and budget priorities that support growth. In a historical analysis covering the 10 Israeli elections since 2003, the TA-125 fell an average of 5.3% in the three months before inconclusive elections, compared with a 0.2% decline before elections that produced a stable government. The comparison reflects the market’s sensitivity to the possibility of continued deadlock, while trading on election day remains tied to uncertainty over the coalition and fiscal policy.