U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Jumps to $134.9 Billion in September
Key Facts
The U.S. goods trade deficit widened 2.1%, or $2.8 billion, to $134.9 billion in September, its highest level since March 2025, according to Reuters. The reading exceeded economists’ expectations of $130.2 billion in a Reuters poll. Imports rose faster than exports, although U.S. shipments abroad also increased. The deficit had reached $132.1 billion in August, compared with $118.9 billion in July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The reading highlights potential pressure from trade on output growth, alongside strong demand for capital goods linked to investment.
Goods imports rose 2.4%, or $8.1 billion, to $344.1 billion in September, according to Reuters. The sharpest increase was in capital goods, whose imports jumped 7.5% during the month and 77.2% year over year. Reuters linked the rise to strong demand for equipment needed to build AI infrastructure. Imports of consumer goods also rose 3.1%, while imports of industrial supplies, including gold and oil, fell 6.0%. These divergent moves indicate that the increase in total imports did not extend in the same direction across all categories.
Goods exports, meanwhile, rose 2.6%, or $5.3 billion, to $209.2 billion, according to Reuters. Food shipments increased 12.8%, while exports of capital goods rose 5.4% and consumer goods exports climbed 6.5%. Both sides of trade therefore grew month over month, but the $8.1 billion increase in imports exceeded the gains in exports. The resulting gap widened the deficit to its highest level since March 2025. The export figures show that the widening trade gap did not coincide with a broad decline in U.S. shipments abroad.
Economists estimated that trade could subtract as much as four percentage points from third-quarter GDP growth. Pantheon Macroeconomics economists put the subtraction at four percentage points, compared with 3.25 points at Oxford Economics, according to Reuters. But Oliver Allen, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon, said growth of about 1% had become more likely after the trade and inventory data, adding that estimating GDP was "harder than usual." Reuters had reported that trade had not added to GDP growth for three consecutive quarters, as an AI investment boom drew in imports, mostly capital goods. Offering a different reading of the deficit’s impact, an economist at Nationwide said trade pressure may reflect strong business investment and consumer spending momentum, describing it as a "sign of strength, not weakness" for the U.S. economy.
Census Bureau estimates showed that wholesale inventories stood at $1,011.5 billion at the end of September, up 0.6% from August and 7.4% from the same month a year earlier. Retail inventories reached $885.3 billion, up 0.3% month over month and 4.8% year over year. Reuters said some imports ended up in unsold inventories held by wholesalers and retailers, which could soften trade’s impact on output. Inventories at motor vehicle and parts dealers also rose 0.2% during the month. These inventories precede the sale of goods and therefore form part of the picture economists use to estimate trade’s contribution to GDP.
Before the trade and inventory data were released, a Reuters poll forecast annualized U.S. GDP growth of 3.2% in the third quarter, following growth of 2.2% in the second quarter. The agency later reported Allen’s estimate that growth close to 1% had become more likely, illustrating the wider range of estimates after the data. The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP was scheduled for release on October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m., according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis calendar. Full September goods and services trade data were scheduled for release on November 4 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The full reading will add services to the advance goods trade estimates announced in this report.