West Texas crude falls 44 cents to $101.32 as diplomacy balances supply risks
Key Facts
West Texas Intermediate fell 44 cents, or 0.43%, to $101.32 a barrel at 00:00 GMT on October 27, while Brent declined 66 cents, or 0.57%, to $115.15, according to Reuters via Marketscreener. The move came as traders weighed signs that regional talks could open the way to a settlement that would ease supply concerns against persistent risks linked to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and shipping. U.S. crude thus remained above $100, but retreated from the previous session’s close. EL7 data show WTI closed at $101.76 on October 26, after closing at $103.27 on October 23. The decline followed weekly gains for both benchmarks, highlighting market volatility as assessments of supply risks and diplomatic developments shifted.
Coverage published on October 27 said regional talks raised the prospect of a settlement and eased supply concerns, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and shipping risks curbed optimism. The available information does not support describing attacks on ships as ongoing that day. The maritime concerns stem from Tehran’s announcement that seven oil tankers were damaged or caught fire overnight on October 22 in the Strait of Hormuz after being attacked or striking sea mines. The Associated Press quoted Tehran as saying the tankers “caught fire or were damaged” in the strait. These events show how risks around the sea lane remained part of market calculations even as the prospects for a diplomatic settlement improved. Attacks on Saudi Arabia and shipping risks, according to the coverage, continued to prevent concerns from receding completely.
The market’s sensitivity to the strait reflects the scale of flows passing through it, although U.S. Energy Information Administration figures show a sharp change between the periods cited. The agency estimated oil flows through Hormuz at 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, then at 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. The agency also said the average spot price for Brent was $114 a barrel in September 2026, up $23 from August. It linked the increase to an escalation in attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers across the Middle East. These figures put price volatility in the context of disrupted flows, facility risks and transport routes, factors that remained in focus alongside developments in regional talks.
On the political front, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned of the risk of a widening confrontation between Iran and Gulf states during a news conference in Cairo, calling for escalation to be prevented. He said, “The risk of a large-scale military attack on Iran, and Iran responding with a large-scale attack on the Gulf states, must be avoided at all costs.” In another regional development, the Associated Press reported that Egypt’s parliament authorized President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to provide military support to Saudi Arabia to defend it against attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces. The agency said el-Sisi reassured the public that the support was limited to defending Saudi territory. These developments add a political dimension to risks surrounding regional shipping and supply security, while their market effects range from reinforcing caution to easing concerns as the prospect of a settlement improves.
In its outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast an average Brent spot price of $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, before it falls to $87 in the second quarter of 2027. The agency said prices would remain volatile because of disruptions to oil flows. These forecasts differ from the daily price moves Reuters recorded at the start of trading on October 27, as they refer to quarterly averages rather than the price in a specific session. Developments in regional talks, shipping risks and attacks on infrastructure remained among the factors surrounding the oil market during the period. The agency’s September data had linked Brent’s rise to an increase in attacks on oil facilities and tankers. The agency’s forecasts therefore remain tied to continued flow disruptions, while prices on October 27 showed daily declines for both benchmarks, with WTI still above $100 a barrel.