Brent at $116 as Rosebank Awaits UK Decision Amid Government Split
Key Facts
Brent crude closed at $116 a barrel on 23 October, its highest level since April, while the Rosebank North Sea oil project remained without a final UK decision. The Guardian reported on 25 October that Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh was leaning toward rejecting the project, while Finance Minister John Healey supported approving it. The newspaper said the prime minister could settle the matter if positions within the government conflict. The application review remains underway within the regulatory process, with a decision expected before the end of 2026. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said reports that it intended to reject the project were "speculation" and that each project would be assessed on its own merits.
The disagreement reflects differing views of energy supply and the project's impact. Fahnbulleh said Jackdaw is a gas field serving the domestic market, while most of Rosebank's oil would be exported. The Guardian quoted officials as estimating that Rosebank's emissions would be about 7 times those of Jackdaw. The department said any decision would take relevant evidence into account, including environmental assessments and comments received during consultations. Rosebank's application remains under government review, after the project's request for further information closed on 17 August. Final approval decisions rest with the North Sea Transition Authority, according to a government response to parliament on 17 September.
Ithaca Energy holds a 20% non-operated stake in Rosebank, while Equinor operates the field with an 80% stake. Ithaca estimates recoverable resources from phases one and two at about 300 million barrels of oil, of which 245 million are targeted by phase one. Ithaca Chief Executive Yaniv Friedman said the company would be inclined to halt further investment in Britain if the government did not approve Rosebank. A Reuters report republished by Euronext said the company's investment in North Sea development, which stalled after development approval was overturned, amounted to $3.8 billion. That puts the Rosebank decision at the center of a broader debate over the continuation of the British company's investments, while approval remains pending.
The debate follows the energy secretary's approval of the Jackdaw gas project after a reassessment, saying domestic supplies would support energy security over the winter and limit the use of higher-emission imported fuel. But the Associated Press reported that Jackdaw would not eliminate Britain's need to import gas or lower prices linked to global markets. The report estimated that the project could account for about 5% of British gas production over an operating life of 11 years. Rosebank differs from Jackdaw in that it produces oil and most of its output is intended for export, according to Fahnbulleh. The agency also said Rosebank would not be ready to start production before the following year, giving officials more time to make a decision.
In the market, EL7 data showed Ithaca shares closed at 309.8 pence on 26 October, compared with a close of 300.8 pence in the previous recorded session on 23 October. In the oil market, Brent was at $116 a barrel at the close of the 23 October session, according to the Associated Press, which said it was the highest level since April. These data alone do not attribute the share move to Rosebank's fate, while the project remains awaiting a regulatory decision. The next key UK milestones are the budget announcement on 28 October, followed by the next inflation data on 18 November. The Office for Budget Responsibility is due to publish updated economic and fiscal forecasts alongside the budget.
The latest UK inflation data showed the Consumer Prices Index rose 3.5% in the 12 months to September, compared with 3.1% in the previous month. The Office for National Statistics attributed the largest upward contribution to the annual change to transport prices, particularly motor fuel. The September report was released on 21 October, and the office set 18 November as the date for the next release. The budget is confirmed for 28 October, with the OBR's updated forecasts due alongside it. The Rosebank decision remains tied to its regulatory process, environmental evidence and consultation comments, with a decision expected before the end of 2026.