$68 Million Bitcoin Options Position Targets $90,000 After November Elections
Key Facts
Derive estimated the notional value of a Bitcoin options position at about $68 million, calling it the largest open position in the currency on the platform. The trade, executed by a single wallet, targets $90,000 after the U.S. midterm elections, according to the headline of a CoinDesk report published on October 26. The wallet bought the contracts on October 20, with an expiration date of November 6. Each contract covers one Bitcoin, making the purchase 800 Bitcoin on a contract basis. The trade represents an individual, multi-leg position, not standalone evidence of the direction of the broader market.
The trade consists of buying 800 call options with a $90,000 strike price, expiring on November 6, 2026. In return, the wallet sold 400 calls with a $100,000 strike price expiring in March 2027. It also sold 400 calls with a $90,000 strike price expiring on October 30, 2026. The wallet collected about $940,000 in net proceeds from these sales after financing the purchase, according to CoinDesk’s details. Describing the transaction as an options purchase alone therefore does not reflect the two accompanying sale legs.
In Derive’s pricing, the implied probability of Bitcoin topping $100,000 by Christmas rose to 12%, from 9.7% a week earlier. In the opposite direction, the priced probability of the currency falling below $70,000 by the same date declined to 11%, from 15.6% a week earlier. The percentages reflect market prices for the two specified scenarios and do not establish that the individual trade caused the change. The improvement in the priced odds of the bullish scenario coincided with a decline in the odds of a drop in Derive’s data. In the Deribit options market, forward 25-delta skews for Bitcoin and Ether options remained negative, meaning put options were more expensive than calls.
Bitcoin was trading near $80,000 on October 26, and CoinDesk described its move as limited compared with the previous Saturday. The daily close was $80,150.56 on October 26, after a close of $84,093.42 on October 21. On October 27, the daily close was $80,294.54, according to EL7 data. These closing prices put Bitcoin near $80,000 on the three recorded days, while the trade’s target strike remains $90,000. The estimated $68 million notional value describes the position’s size and does not represent its entry cost or net risk.
The trade comes as the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 approach. Congressional elections determine which party will hold the majority in each chamber for the following two years, according to USAGov. The headline of the CoinDesk report links the bet to an expected post-election breakout, setting $90,000 as the target level. Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee was scheduled to meet on October 27 and 28, and the Federal Reserve chair was due to hold a news conference on October 28. The latest published Federal Reserve update, dated September 17, 2026, set the target interest rate range at 3.75% to 4.00%.