EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•27 October 2026•
5 min read

Russian crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports expected to fall in November

Key Facts

1Russian refinery throughput was 3.8 million barrels per day in June 2026, its lowest in more than 20 years and about 30% below its level a year earlier.
2Trading sources expected crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports to decline in November as refineries planned to raise output and produce more diesel.
3The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for average Russian refinery runs to 4 million barrels per day for the rest of 2026 and in 2027.
4Seaborne gasoil and diesel exports averaged 4.7 million barrels per day in the first nine months of 2026, down 10% year on year.
5Kpler expected the Russian diesel tanker to arrive in New York on November 7, in the first shipment to the United States since July 2023.

Trading sources expect crude oil exports from Russian ports on the Baltic Sea and Black Sea to decline in November, as domestic refineries prepare to raise output after maintenance. That means crude available for export may shrink as refineries shift toward producing more diesel, according to a Reuters summary published on October 27. The summary said refineries “plan to increase output after maintenance and produce more diesel.” The trading sources did not specify the expected decline or the change compared with October. Nor did the summary attribute the decline to specific volumes of crude being diverted to refineries or to any single factor. The forecast comes as Russia’s refining sector remains under pressure, according to International Energy Agency data.

International Energy Agency data show the extent of the weakness preceding plans to raise output: Russian refinery throughput was 3.8 million barrels per day in June 2026, its lowest level in more than 20 years and about 30% below its level a year earlier. The agency estimated that Russian diesel production fell by about 30% compared with 2025 levels, and said the government had restricted fuel exports to protect domestic supply. That puts the planned increase in diesel output in the context of domestic market demand for fuel, alongside refinery plans to resume activity after maintenance. In October, the agency cut its forecast for average refinery runs to 4 million barrels per day for the rest of 2026 and in 2027. The estimate suggests that the return of units from maintenance will not necessarily mean the sector regains higher operating levels over the coming period.

Refineries have also faced damage linked to attacks on key facilities. The International Energy Agency said Omsk, Russia’s largest refinery, was hit on July 7 and has refining capacity of 450 thousand barrels per day. A Ukrainian strike also hit the Moscow refinery, with capacity of 250 thousand barrels per day, in June 2026. The agency said reports indicated the refinery would remain shut until early 2027. In response to operating disruptions, Russian refineries have sought to maintain output by postponing scheduled maintenance, bringing idled units back online and accelerating repairs. These measures show that the end of some maintenance work is taking place amid ongoing operational damage and efforts to offset it, rather than a confirmed return to full capacity.

Weak refinery output has also extended to oil product trade outside Russia. Seaborne gasoil and diesel exports averaged 4.7 million barrels per day in the first nine months of 2026, down 10% from the same period a year earlier, according to the International Energy Agency. In August, combined diesel exports from the Middle East and Russia fell to 520 thousand barrels per day, down 75% year on year, according to the agency’s preliminary estimates. Global diesel exports also declined by 700 thousand barrels per day year on year in September. The agency said the loss of 1.3 million barrels per day from Russia and the Middle East was not fully offset by higher supplies from other regions. The figures show that Russian refinery plans to produce more diesel come in a market where flows of the fuel have declined, alongside Russian restrictions on fuel exports to protect domestic supply.

Global supply and inventories remain part of the market backdrop. OECD gasoil stocks stood at 565 million barrels in July, 5% below pre-conflict levels and their lowest since November 2023, according to the International Energy Agency. In September, the average price of dated North Sea Brent rose by $26.17 per barrel month on month to $116.89, the agency said. It warned that any further deterioration in refinery margins could prompt marginal refineries in Asia and Europe to cut runs, further tightening the market before year-end. These indicators do not specify the impact of the November forecast on prices or the volume of Russian exports. They put the refineries’ decision to increase diesel output in a period of lower fuel inventories in some areas and declining global diesel flows.

In a separate diesel trade development, the first Russian tanker under a supply agreement to the United States has departed, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “the first tanker has sailed to customers, and regular supplies will continue,” without providing further details. Kpler said the tanker had declared New York as its destination, with arrival expected on November 7. The shipment would be the first delivery of Russian diesel to the United States since July 2023, according to the company. This adds a new trade destination to the backdrop of increased diesel production cited in the Reuters summary, without establishing a direct link between the shipment and refinery plans or crude exports through western ports. The expected arrival date of November 7 remains the nearest dated development in this trade, while the available forecast gives no date for an announcement of Russian crude export volumes for the same month.