Rubio: Venezuela’s $300 Billion Debt Complicates Path to Elections and Reform
Key Facts
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said street protests would not lead to democracy in Venezuela, speaking to reporters on Monday without naming opposition leader María Corina Machado. Axios reported that his remarks were viewed as a veiled warning as Machado returned to the country after an absence of nearly a year. Machado is calling for elections by July 2027, while authorities have not set a date for the vote. U.S. officials are leaving open the possibility of elections in 2027 or 2028, Axios said. The dispute over timing is unfolding alongside U.S. efforts to reform the institutions expected to oversee any political transition.
Machado returned to Venezuela on Sunday, October 25, 2026, after spending months abroad, and thousands of people welcomed her along roads and streets as she entered Caracas, according to Agence France-Presse. Rubio said Washington had told the interim authorities weeks earlier that it expected them to allow Machado to return, adding: "She is Venezuelan, and her place is in her country." Machado and U.S. officials support holding elections, but disagree on when. Venezuelan authorities and opposition figures had agreed the previous week on an outline to reform the electoral process, with the aim of enabling free and fair elections sometime in 2027. Reuters said no date had been set for the vote and Machado wants it held by July that year.
Washington is making institutional rebuilding part of the conditions for preparing a vote trusted by all sides. The plan includes reforms to the courts and electoral council, alongside economic stabilization and space for political expression. Rubio said the goal was to create a sustainable electoral structure that gives everyone confidence in voting. U.S. officials have not set deadlines for the reforms, but Rubio said the interim government had so far met every agreed deadline. A senior State Department official added that reform of the security services could be another part of the transition, and that economic reform was needed to avoid the collapse of an elected government. Officials hope to select a new court by the end of 2026 and a new electoral council in early 2027, Axios reported, while the timeline for addressing the debt was less clear.
The election date remains subject to political arrangements that have yet to be settled, with U.S. officials telling Axios that the vote could take place next year or in 2028. In the most optimistic scenario, interim President Delcy Rodríguez would have to declare the presidency vacant, triggering a six-month period to hold elections; State Department officials said she could then call a vote for June 2027. But the U.S. administration has stressed that the timing remains unclear and that postponing elections until 2028 is possible. That leaves Machado’s demand for elections by July 2027 facing a political and institutional timetable that is not yet complete. Washington says the interim government has met agreed deadlines so far, while Rubio has not set a final date for the vote.
The reform agenda is also linked to the sovereign debt crisis, which Axios estimated at about $300 billion, an amount exceeding Venezuela’s gross domestic product. In a separate report, Reuters put the government’s and state oil company’s defaulted bonds at about $60 billion, with total liabilities potentially exceeding $150 billion once accrued interest, claims and arbitration awards are included. Rubio said debt restructuring was essential to Venezuela’s success, while Axios noted that debt was a priority for U.S. officials but its timeline was less clear than institutional reform. The two estimates point to different scopes of the problem: the total sovereign debt on one hand, and defaulted bonds and related potential liabilities on the other. Washington links economic stability to the possibility of an elected government able to endure.
The debate also extends to the oil sector, where Rubio defended the U.S. oil deal, calling it good for both sides while acknowledging Machado’s right to express her opinion. U.S. officials said the deal was part of a process to align Venezuela’s energy sector with the United States. Machado, however, said the deal’s true scope was unclear, including who signed it, what guarantees were provided and what benefits would accrue to Venezuelans. Venezuela’s oil output was about 1.25 million barrels a day, compared with a peak of 3 million barrels a day in the late 1990s. International companies that signed in September included Eni, GE Vernova and Chevron, Reuters reported.
The opposition is preparing for possible elections, with Machado’s movement planning to launch an app to collect voter registration data from Venezuelans living abroad. Fifteen employees worked on the app over 18 months, Reuters reported. The initiative adds an organizational dimension to Machado’s return and her demand for a specific election date, while the vote’s timing has not been officially settled. Politically, the most optimistic scenario remains tied to elections in June 2027, while U.S. officials’ estimates point to a possible wait until 2028. In the meantime, Washington is focused on reforming the courts and electoral council and stabilizing the economy before the vote.