Polaris raises 2026 operating EPS forecast to $2.40–$2.50
Key Facts
Polaris raised its 2026 adjusted operating earnings-per-share forecast, excluding tariff refunds, to a range of $2.40–$2.50 from its previous estimate of $2.05–$2.15, the company said on its third-quarter earnings call. It also raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $3.50–$3.60 from $3.00–$3.10. The full-year range includes an estimated $1.09 per share from refunds recorded in the second and third quarters. The company is thus separating an operating estimate that excludes the refunds from its adjusted earnings forecast, which includes their effect. In its statement, the company said the update reflects third-quarter performance and momentum across its businesses.
Polaris also raised its 2026 adjusted sales forecast to $7.55–$7.60 billion, compared with the previous range of $7.30–$7.50 billion. The move followed global third-quarter sales of $2.043 billion, up 11% from the same period in 2025. Second-quarter sales were $2.023 billion, up 9% year over year. The figures show annual sales growth in both quarters, with the rate of increase accelerating in the third quarter. The company linked sales growth to higher shipments of off-road vehicles, commercial products and snowmobiles, alongside improved net pricing.
In retail demand, sales of Utility ORVs, excluding youth models, rose 6% year over year in the third quarter. Total ORV sales, excluding the same category, increased 2% during the period. Polaris said it gained ORV market share for the sixth consecutive quarter. These indicators place growth in work-vehicle sales within a broader picture spanning multiple product lines, rather than attributing the increase to a single category. The company also attributed higher sales in its powersports segment to increased shipment volumes of ORVs, commercial products and snowmobiles, as well as positive net pricing.
Third-quarter adjusted profitability improved alongside higher sales, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.08, compared with $0.41 a year earlier. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization margin rose to 8.8%, an increase of 118 basis points year over year. But the quarter also included $10 million in tariff refunds, which lifted adjusted EPS by $0.13. That specific contribution is consistent with the company excluding refunds from its new operating forecast. Second-quarter results included $74 million in refunds, adding $0.96 to adjusted EPS for that quarter.
Despite the improvement in the third-quarter margin, Polaris said higher commodity and logistics costs and additional tariffs partly limited margin gains. Net cash generated from operating activities in the nine months ended September 30 also fell to $291.8 million from $562.3 million in the corresponding period of 2025. This came as the company expanded sales, but highlights a different trajectory for cash flow from revenue growth and adjusted EPS in the quarter. The company had raised its adjusted EPS forecast in July to $3.00–$3.10 from $1.60–$1.70, before the latest increase. In that quarter, it also reported $74 million in tariff refunds, which contributed to the earlier forecast increase.
Polaris shares closed at $55.15 on October 26, according to EL7 data. In premarket trading on October 27, Investing.com reported that the stock rose 7.35% to $59.21 compared with the previous close. The premarket move followed the earnings report and forecast increase, as the annual sales and operating EPS estimates rose alongside quarterly sales growth and an improved adjusted margin. The full EPS range, meanwhile, reflects the contribution from tariff refunds recorded in the second and third quarters. The company update did not specify a later date for the release of annual results in the information provided with its third-quarter announcement.