Philippines Rules Out Nickel Export Ban to China Despite Its 77% Share of Shipments
Key Facts
The Philippine presidency ruled out imposing a ban on nickel exports to China, with palace spokesperson Claire Castro saying on October 27 that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. would not take this kind of retaliatory action. The statement came in response to a question about the possibility of blocking shipments of nickel or other products from Surigao del Sur to China. The question was linked to reported Chinese economic threats, according to the Philippine News Agency. Castro said protecting Philippine maritime interests in the West Philippine Sea was separate from managing economic relations. She added that the president was not considering an export ban in response to the tensions.
The response reflects significant trade dependence on the Chinese market: the value of Philippine exports of nickel ores and concentrates to China reached $994.11 million in 2025, according to international trade data cited by the Daily Tribune. U.S. Geological Survey data show that the Philippines exported 44.5 million wet metric tons of nickel ores and concentrates in 2024. China received 77% of those shipments, while 23% went to Indonesia. China’s share was larger in 2023, when it received 99% of total exports of 38.8 million metric tons. Data from the Philippine Nickel Industry Association indicate that China remained the largest export market in 2025, but its share fell to 66% after reaching 78% in 2024.
The Philippines is an important producer, ranking as the world’s second-largest nickel producer in 2024, with a 9.5% share of global production, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But direct-shipping nickel ore production fell 5.8% to 33.4 million metric tons that year. The value of mined ore production also declined 15% to $989 million. The agency attributed the declines to poor weather and the continued shutdown of some mines for maintenance. In separate data for the following year, the Philippine Nickel Industry Association said national production reached 37.81 million dry metric tons in 2025, and that its members accounted for about 73% of national production.
The palace’s position comes as trade ties overlap with Manila and Beijing’s disputes over maritime interests, but Castro stressed that the two issues should be kept separate. She said: "The economic issue is different from the issue of protecting our territory and interests in the West Philippine Sea." In another statement, she pointed to cooperation between the two countries in the economy, trade and investment, adding: "The president will not consider this kind of retaliatory response, because we know that China and the Philippines cooperate in matters relating to the economy, trade and investment." The scale of exports to China gives the position practical context, with Beijing the leading destination for Philippine nickel ore shipments in the 2024 and 2025 data. More broadly, demand for nickel and other critical minerals rose 6–8% in 2024, with demand growth driven largely by energy uses, including electric vehicles and batteries, according to the International Energy Agency.
Markets are awaiting the release of China’s October manufacturing purchasing managers’ index on October 31, according to the calendar of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The index stood at 50.1% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, moving into expansion territory. The new orders index was 50.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the bureau said a reading above the expansion threshold indicated continued improvement in market demand. The bureau describes the index as a tool for tracking macroeconomic trends, while the release date provides a fresh reading on Chinese manufacturing activity. The index does not measure nickel demand specifically, but it offers a broad indicator of industrial activity in China, the largest destination for Philippine nickel ore exports in the cited data.