PayPal raises 2026 earnings-per-share forecast to $5.38 after second-quarter results
Key Facts
In July, PayPal raised its forecast for adjusted earnings per share in 2026 to about $5.38, from a previous range spanning a low-single-digit decline to modest growth, according to its second-quarter results filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The update came alongside results showing revenue of $8.7 billion, up 5% year over year. Total payment volume rose 10% to $486.4 billion, or 9% excluding the impact of currency. The company also posted adjusted earnings of $1.38 per share, topping analysts' estimates of $1.28, according to Reuters News Service. These figures are for the second quarter of 2026 and are the latest results listed before the third-quarter announcement.
Second-quarter performance provides context for the company's higher annual guidance, as revenue and payment volume growth coincided with earnings per share above analysts' estimates. Revenue was $8.7 billion, while PayPal's results page reported actual revenue of $8.68 billion against an estimate of $8.47 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came to $1.38, versus the expected $1.28. By contrast, the adjusted earnings-per-share guidance announced in July for the third quarter pointed to a low-single-digit decline from the same period a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share in the third quarter of 2025 were $1.34, according to the company filing.
Payment data point to growth in overall activity during the second quarter, with volume rising to $486.4 billion. The growth rate was 10%, or 9% excluding the impact of currency, according to PayPal's filing. In a Reuters report published before the third-quarter results, Investing.com cited Mizuho analysis that PayPal's branded payment volume growth diverged from that of its major merchant partners by nine percentage points in the second quarter. The report linked the gap to questions about market share, while the annual guidance published in July made no adjustment related to this indicator. At the time, the company's adjusted earnings-per-share estimate for the third quarter remained a low-single-digit year-over-year decline.
Before the third-quarter results were announced, a report republished by Investing.com said earnings-per-share estimates had fallen 0.42% over the preceding sixty days. The report also said Cleveland Research downgraded PayPal to Underperform from Market Perform on October 19, citing concerns about market-share losses and macroeconomic pressures. In separate Reuters coverage republished by Investing.com, the firm cut its rating on the stock to Underperform from Neutral, citing deteriorating third-quarter trends, market-share losses and pricing pressure. The report also cited concerns about slowing branded international payments, weak consumer demand and competition. These were estimates and comments made ahead of the results, not confirmed third-quarter figures.
The latest earnings release listed before the third-quarter announcement was dated July 28, 2026, according to PayPal's results page on Investing.com. The page showed earnings per share of $1.38 against an estimate of $1.28, and revenue of $8.68 billion against an estimate of $8.47 billion. The stock closed at $54.99 on October 26, according to EL7 data. The supplied data do not include the daily high or low, so the stock move here is tracked by its closing price alone. The available facts also do not provide third-quarter results figures or details of the holiday-quarter guidance mentioned in the referenced report.