OPEC+ Holds November Output at September Levels, Calls Meeting for Nov. 1
Key Facts
The seven countries participating in the OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation kept required production levels for November at September 2026 levels and announced a new meeting on Nov. 1 to review market conditions. The decision followed a virtual meeting on Oct. 4 attended by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, according to OPEC. The decision keeps next month’s targets on the same track the group followed in September, while shipping risks in the Gulf remain in the background of supply discussions. OPEC said the next meeting would be devoted to reviewing market conditions, without announcing any change to production levels in its statement. The November review takes on added importance as oil continues to transit the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military protection, alongside an escalation in attacks on commercial shipping, according to the Associated Press.
The decision to hold targets steady reflects the approach the seven countries announced in October, keeping required November production at the September reference level rather than announcing a new level. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman met virtually on Oct. 4 to review market conditions and outlook, according to the official statement. This comes as shipping in the region combines continued movement with elevated risks: the Associated Press said oil tankers were still transiting the strait under U.S. military protection. The agency quoted a British military observer as saying October saw the highest number of reported attacks on commercial shipping since March. It also cited Lloyd’s List Intelligence as recording 28 attacks on ships in October, the highest number since the start of the war. The company said active Gulf operators showed limited signs of withdrawing despite the attacks, indicating that traffic had not stopped entirely.
OPEC linked disruption to energy flows with higher transport and insurance costs, saying in a statement issued on Oct. 12 that shipping and insurance costs had exceeded one-third of the value of the commodity. It added that these costs move through the oil value chain, increasing the burden on producers and consumers and affecting global growth. Ministers participating in the Declaration of Cooperation called for international maritime corridors to be protected to ensure uninterrupted energy flows. The warning puts shipping risks at the center of the context surrounding the review of production targets, as tankers continue to transit despite the attacks. This does not mean the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed: the Associated Press reported that oil continued to move through it under U.S. protection.
In Saudi Arabia, the Associated Press reported that the amount of oil transported through a pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz had tripled, according to the head of Aramco. The agency said the capacity of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline had risen to 7 million barrels a day from 2 million, according to Amin Nasser. The route provides an alternative to transiting the strait for some oil shipments, as vessel traffic faces growing risks. This comes alongside OPEC’s assertion that disruption to energy flows raises shipping and insurance costs and has an impact across the oil chain. The seven countries’ published decision did not change November targets, keeping them at September levels.
Oil markets retreated from the previous week’s gains on Oct. 26, with prices remaining near six-month highs amid concerns over attacks on Saudi Arabia and supply risks. Reuters, via Yahoo Finance, reported that Brent futures fell during trading to $115.15 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures slipped to $101.16. Brent had risen 6% in the week ended Oct. 23, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.3% over the same period. In a broader market outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast an average Brent spot price of $85 a barrel in the third quarter of 2026, before a gradual decline to $69 in 2027 as production recovers and inventories are rebuilt. The agency expected most regional production to return to levels near those before the conflict in early 2027, with disruptions of about 0.6 million barrels a day continuing through the end of 2027.
Current risks are tied to a shifting negotiating track over the strait: the Associated Press reported that Qatar and Pakistan mediated a deal in June intended to fully reopen it to shipping and end the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, but the deal quickly collapsed as attacks resumed. The agency said Iran was promoting a proposal to fully open the strait within a week if the United States agreed to conditions including ending the blockade of Iranian ports. The proposal revives conditions similar to those in the June deal, which collapsed within days of being signed, according to the agency. On the institutional calendar, OPEC set Nov. 29, 2026, for the next meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, its sixty-ninth meeting. That follows the seven countries’ meeting on Nov. 1, which OPEC said would review market conditions.