Analysts Tip MOL to Buy Aramco’s Polish Assets as Gdansk Stake Sale Remains Possible
Key Facts
Analysts see Hungarian group MOL as the likeliest candidate to buy some of Aramco’s assets in Poland in a potential deal that could include the Saudi company’s stake in the Gdansk refinery. Rzeczpospolita reported that Aramco had tasked JPMorgan Chase with testing the market for a possible sale of Polish assets. A sale of Aramco’s wholesale fuel company remains the likelier scenario, while a sale of the refinery stake is considered less likely. No decision has been made to sell either asset, and analysts’ view that MOL is a likely candidate does not mean it has been selected as a buyer. That places the refinery stake within a broader possible reshaping of Aramco’s Polish assets, rather than in a confirmed deal.
The partnership dates back to agreements Aramco announced in January 2022, which included acquiring 30% of the Gdansk refinery, the entire wholesale business and an equal share in a joint venture to market jet fuel. On 30 November 2022, ORLEN completed the transaction and retained 70% of the refinery, while Aramco took a 30% stake. The refinery has total capacity of 210 thousand barrels per day, making the stake a focus of discussions about a sale of Polish assets. But minority ownership does not give Aramco control of the company. ORLEN said its representatives make up a majority of the refinery’s management and supervisory boards, and that it retains decisive influence over refinery decisions.
The ties between the two companies extend beyond the ownership stake in Gdansk to crude supplies. ORLEN said when announcing completion of the deal that Aramco would supply shipments covering 45% of the entire ORLEN group’s needs. That means any potential change in ownership of the refinery stake would sit within a relationship that also includes crude oil flows to the Polish group. Sources did not say the supply agreement would change if the stake were sold, so a sale cannot be treated as an automatic change to supply terms. The European Commission also approved the partnership agreements as compliant with European competition rules, according to ORLEN.
The view that MOL is a likely candidate is based on its position as a regional energy group and the potential benefits of refining and distribution assets, but the company has not presented this interpretation as a stated objective. A Citi Handlowy analyst said MOL might be interested in the refinery stake so it could supply fuel to its stations. That remains an analytical view of a possible reason for interest, not confirmation that an offer has been made or that negotiations have settled the deal. The scenario in which Aramco’s wholesale fuel company is sold ahead of the refinery stake keeps the focus on Aramco’s broader Polish portfolio. Neither Aramco nor MOL has announced a final decision on a transfer of ownership.
MOL’s updated strategy points to an investment path focused on expanding the use of petrochemical feedstocks, with the group targeting conversion of 1.8 million tonnes into them by 2030. The company says the plan will rely on two investment cycles, targeting the start of operations in 2027 and 2030. Those targets provide context for possible interest in refining assets, but do not establish a link between the strategy and the current search for buyers for Aramco’s assets in Poland. Any transfer of the Gdansk stake remains conditional on a sale decision and the existing ownership arrangements, under which ORLEN retains the majority and decisive influence. Available information does not specify a timetable for a decision or a next step in the potential process.