Analysts’ estimates for HMPRO’s third-quarter earnings ranged from 1.3 billion to 1.4 billion baht

Key Facts

Analysts’ estimates for third-quarter 2026 earnings at Thailand’s Home Product Center, known by the ticker HMPRO, ranged from 1.3 billion to 1.4 billion baht, with forecasts for year-on-year growth of 3% to 6% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13% to 16%. These figures were issued before the results announcement and therefore represent forecasts, not actual results; the figures in the initial draft could not be verified against a publicly available official statement. Krungsri estimated core profit at 1.39 billion baht, while DBS put forecast net profit at 1.4 billion baht and DAOL estimated recurring profit at 1.3 billion baht. The estimates used different profit measures, limiting direct comparison. The company is scheduled to report its results on November 2.

On revenue, Krungsri forecast sales and service revenue of 16.4 billion baht, up 2% year on year and down 6% from the previous quarter. DBS estimated sales at 16.5 billion baht, up 2.5% year on year, attributing the expected increase to branch network expansion. The estimates put sales growth below forecast annual earnings growth, but the gap does not establish that profitability improved, as published results were not available for verification. The sales estimates also differ in value and growth rate, reflecting the two institutions’ differing forecasts ahead of the announcement. DBS said same-store sales in July and August remained weak, and forecast that they would stabilize at HomePro in September and turn slightly positive at Mega Home.

The institutions forecast an improvement in gross margin, but differed markedly on its scale. Krungsri estimated the margin at 28.5%, compared with 27.7% in the third quarter of 2025, saying the expected improvement was linked to a higher share of private-label products and price adjustments made in the first half. DBS forecast a margin of 28.1%, up 40 basis points year on year and down by the same amount quarter on quarter, noting that private-label sales support front-end margins. DAOL estimated the margin at 26.9%, against 25.5% in the same period a year earlier, attributing the increase to a higher share of higher-margin private-label products. These figures remain differing estimates and do not confirm that any of the margin levels or cited drivers materialized during the quarter.

Krungsri warned that weak purchasing power and increased rainfall could affect same-store sales at HomePro stores, forecasting a 2.5% contraction in the third quarter after a 0.9% decline in the second quarter. The institution said HomePro stores account for 80% of total sales, making their performance influential in the direction of overall sales. The forecasts cite weak consumer demand and weather among factors that could weigh on activity, alongside the expected reliance on private-label product mix and price adjustments to support margins. DBS also cited weak same-store sales in July and August, but forecast a return to stability at HomePro in September and slight growth at Mega Home. These forecasts do not include actual third-quarter same-store sales results.

The institutions had differing views on the fourth quarter, agreeing on an expected improvement in earnings compared with the third quarter or the year-earlier period, but citing different drivers and constraints. Krungsri forecast a slight improvement in core profit year on year and quarter on quarter, supported by increased demand for home repair products after the floods, while warning that weak purchasing power could limit a recovery in same-store sales. DBS forecast a quarterly earnings improvement on seasonality, but said annual growth would remain limited because purchasing power was recovering slowly. DAOL said fourth-quarter same-store sales had been good through the date of its update, and forecast an earnings recovery on seasonality and continued margin strength. DAOL maintained its profit estimates at 6.2 billion baht in 2026 and 6.4 billion baht in 2027, with expected annual growth of 3% in each year.