Gulf Refined-Product Exports at 40% of Their 2025 Average
Key Facts
Goldman Sachs said Gulf Arab exports of refined products, including diesel and gasoline, remained at about 40% of their 2025 average in the final weeks of October. That puts refined-fuel flows well below crude flows, despite an improvement in the region’s crude oil exports. The bank estimated Gulf crude exports at about 110% of their 2025 average in the latest weeks through October 23. The divergence between crude and products reflects continued tightness in refined-fuel supplies, a concern for diesel and gasoline importers in the region. Goldman Sachs linked weak product exports to refinery damage and limited investment in processing.
Goldman Sachs said refinery damage in the Middle East and weak investment before the war were weighing on the refined-products market. It added that Russian refinery diesel output had fallen following Ukrainian drone attacks. The bank said Russian refineries had "significantly cut diesel production due to drone attacks from Ukraine." These factors are adding pressure to fuel-product supplies, even as Gulf crude exports have risen above their 2025 average. The differing paths of crude and products show that crude abundance alone does not mean refined-fuel supplies are recovering.
Goldman Sachs noted that higher diesel margins were prompting some refineries to change their product mix. It said refineries were shifting output away from gasoline toward higher-margin products such as diesel and jet fuel. The bank described the trend as refineries "deciding to shift production away from gasoline toward higher-margin products such as diesel and jet fuel." This shift means competition for refining capacity is not limited to meeting diesel demand; it also affects gasoline availability. Production constraints are therefore coinciding with a reallocation of refinery output among fuel types.
The International Energy Agency forecast that global demand for refined products would peak in 2027 at 86.3 million barrels per day. That is only 710,000 barrels per day above the 2024 level, according to the agency’s estimates. After the peak, the agency expects declines in gasoline and diesel consumption to outweigh growth in demand for naphtha and jet fuel. On the capacity side, it expects 4.2 million barrels per day of global refining capacity to be added through 2030, offset by closures totaling 1.6 million barrels per day. The agency expects net capacity growth to exceed demand growth, making further closures of high-cost refineries in Europe and the U.S. West Coast more likely.
The agency expects the Middle East to add 860,000 barrels per day to global product supplies through 2030. But it believes refining activity east of the Suez Canal will not keep pace with product-demand growth in that region, widening the supply gap there slightly. In the United States, operable atmospheric distillation capacity, the main measure of refining capacity, stood at 18.2 million barrels per day on January 1, 2026. That was more than 250,000 barrels per day, or about 1%, below the start of 2025. These long-term forecasts put current supply tightness in the context of a market where demand and capacity trends vary across regions and fuel types.