U.S. New-Home Sales Fall 5.3% Year Over Year; Gold Closes Above $4,000
Key Facts
U.S. new-home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units in September, down 0.6% from August and 5.3% from September 2025, according to data published by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development on October 27. EL7 data showed the GCUSD contract closed at 4,023.4 that day, compared with 4,038.4 on October 26. Spot gold XAUUSD, meanwhile, closed at 4,049.7, after 4,017.19 the previous day. Both readings put gold above $4,000, but they moved in opposite directions on a daily basis. The available data did not establish that the decline in home sales caused gold’s movement.
Year over year, sales fell from 714,000 units in September 2025 to 676,000, while the monthly reading was below August’s 680,000. The seasonally adjusted annual rate means the pace of sales recorded during the month is calculated as if it continued for a full year; it is not the number of homes actually sold in September. The Census Bureau scheduled the release of September sales data for October 27, while it published construction and permits data on October 20. Thus, the permits and housing starts figures preceding the sales report refer to the same month but were released separately. The annual comparison offers a broader picture of the market’s slowdown than the monthly change alone.
The Census Bureau and HUD reported that the inventory of new homes for sale at the end of September stood at 476,000, equivalent to 8.4 months of supply at the current sales rate. The median price of a new home sold was $400,400, down 3.9% from September 2025, when it was $416,800. Inventory and price figures add another dimension to the sales reading: the market combined an annual decline in units sold with a drop in the median price. The 8.4 months of supply reflects the relationship between existing inventory and the current sales pace, rather than a forecast of how long it will take to sell each home. All these figures relate to September 2026.
In construction data published by the Census Bureau on October 20, privately owned building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,400,000 units in September, down 0.2% from August and 3.0% from September 2025. The permit count was below the revised August reading of 1,403,000 units and September last year’s 1,444,000 units. Privately owned housing starts also fell to an annual rate of 1,221,000 units, down 5.2% month over month and 7.4% year over year. Housing starts had reached 1,288,000 units in August and 1,319,000 in September 2025. Permits, starts and sales indicators thus all showed annual declines in housing activity, though the scale of the drops varied among the measures.
In the background to the gold market, the World Gold Council said the metal ended September at $4,176 an ounce, down 8.5% from August. The council attributed part of the decline to a 53 basis-point rise in the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to 5.3%, and a 2% increase in the dollar index during the month. Even so, global gold exchange-traded funds recorded inflows of $10 billion, or 67 tonnes, in September despite the price decline. China’s central bank announced it added 23 tonnes to its reserves in September, its largest monthly increase since October 2023, bringing its purchases in the third quarter to 63 tonnes. The council said gold stabilized in early October, with the international price remaining above $4,100 an ounce.
Attention is turning to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 27 and 28, with policymakers expected to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged, according to a report cited by The Associated Press. The report said the rate stood at about 3.9% and investors saw very little chance of an increase at the October meeting. The Federal Reserve’s calendar set November 18 as the date for publication of the minutes of the October meeting. For gold, the World Gold Council said geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices, along with inflation expectations and the path of U.S. interest rates, remain key factors for short-term moves. This follows September’s decline, which the council partly attributed to higher yields and the dollar.