Rystad Forecasts at Least $39 Billion Increase in 2026 LNG Bill

Key Facts

Rystad Energy expects global liquefied natural gas (LNG) importers to spend at least an additional $39 billion in 2026 on contracted supplies and spot purchases, despite buying lower volumes. The company estimates global purchases will fall by 60.7 million tons that year. In its scenario, portfolio costs rise from a pre-war estimate of $217.8 billion to at least $256.3 billion. Rystad published its estimate on October 26. The figures reflect, the company says, the higher cost of securing supplies under the assumption that Gulf cargoes remain unavailable.

The scenario assumes no LNG cargoes will be available from Qatar and the UAE from March through the end of 2026. On that basis, Rystad puts global portfolio costs at at least $256.3 billion, compared with $217.8 billion before the war. In its aggregate presentation, the company expects costs to reach $256 billion, up 18% from the pre-war estimate. Disrupted flows, according to Rystad, are pushing more buyers into the spot market to replace interrupted volumes and purchase alternatives at higher prices. The company links this decline in purchase volumes to a higher overall bill.

Europe faces the largest regional increase in its bill, with Rystad expecting LNG spending to rise by at least $12 billion, or 18%, despite demand falling by 24 million tons. Of the 24.7 million tons of Qatari LNG scheduled for delivery to Europe in 2026 before the conflict, the company expects 20.6 million tons to be lost. This highlights the extent to which scheduled European supplies depend on Qatari cargoes in this scenario. Europe also buys about 65% of its LNG on the spot market, according to Rystad’s analysis. The company says this exposure makes higher spot prices a direct factor in the region’s rising bill.

East Asia is expected by Rystad to record the smallest relative increase in LNG costs among regions outside the Middle East, at 9.7%. Spot purchases account for 14.5% of the region’s imports, while 82% of its long-term contracts are linked to oil. The company says oil-linked contract prices have risen about 28%, compared with 72% for contracts linked to gas hub benchmarks and spot prices. In Europe, the average price rose 47%, according to Rystad. The comparison shows how the market disruption’s impact varies with the mix of contracts and reliance on spot purchases.

Christophe Halser, Rystad’s senior gas and LNG research analyst, said, "Diversifying pricing benchmarks may help manage costs, but it does not guarantee physical supply." He added that supply flexibility is no less important than the price paid. In its account of regional responses, Rystad says Pakistan is cutting purchases more sharply than India. The company also attributes higher prices and increased import volumes in Africa and South America to Egypt and Brazil, respectively. These differences show that countries are responding to supply disruption through different purchasing choices, while cargo availability remains separate from the way it is priced.

Global LNG trade rose 12% year on year between October 2025 and February 2026, while benchmark prices in Europe and Asia fell about 25% over the same period, according to the International Energy Agency. Natural gas prices in Asia and Europe then reached their highest monthly averages since January 2023 in March, before easing in the second quarter of 2026 while remaining above 2025 levels. In the week ended October 16, the spot price for delivery to North Asia rose to $29.30 per million British thermal units, its highest level since December 2023. The price was $10.40 at the end of February, before the war broke out, according to Reuters. These moves mark a sharp shift from falling prices early in the season to a subsequent rise in gas markets.

The International Energy Agency expects LNG supplies from Qatar and the UAE combined to fall by about 45%, or 54 billion cubic meters, in 2026 compared with 2025. It says, however, that new projects in North America, Africa and Australia will add nearly 50 billion cubic meters to global supplies during the year, offsetting most of the expected shortfall. On that basis, the agency expects global LNG trade in 2026 to remain broadly close to its previous annual level. In Qatar, the start-up of the first units of the North East Field expansion, with a capacity of 43.5 billion cubic meters a year, has been delayed until at least the first half of 2027, from a target of the end of 2026. The agency said work on the project was disrupted following military attacks on the Ras Laffan facility in March 2026.