Coca-Cola Raises 2026 Adjusted EPS Growth Floor to 11%
Key Facts
Coca-Cola raised its forecast for adjusted earnings per share growth in fiscal 2026 to at least 11%, from a previous range of 9% to 10%, according to its third-quarter results statement issued on October 27. The company also raised the floor for its currency-neutral adjusted EPS growth forecast, excluding acquisitions and divestitures, to 9% from a range of 7% to 8%. The guidance revision came as net revenue rose 7% to $13.4 billion in the quarter and adjusted organic revenue grew 7%. The company said global unit case volume increased 5%, led by India, China, Mexico and Brazil. The new guidance reflects a combination of volume and revenue growth and improved adjusted earnings, while the quarter's performance shows the sources and costs of that growth.
By product, sparkling beverage unit case volume rose 5% in the third quarter, while Coca-Cola Zero Sugar volume increased 16%, according to the company statement. Zero Sugar's growth puts the brand's performance within the sparkling category in the context of the category's expansion, as total category volume grew at the same pace as global unit case volume. The statement did not link the higher earnings forecast to resilient demand for higher-priced products; it presented brand and category growth as part of the quarter's results. Concentrate sales rose 7%, while price/mix increased 1%, the two drivers the company cited for adjusted organic revenue growth. The company said price/mix growth came mainly from pricing actions and was partly offset by unfavorable mix.
Earnings per share was $0.93 in the third quarter, up 8% from the year-earlier period, while adjusted EPS rose 11% to $0.91, the company said. Operating margin widened to 33.4%, compared with 32.0% in the third quarter of the previous year. Adjusted operating margin was 32.9%, versus 31.9% in the year-earlier period. Currency-neutral adjusted operating income grew 8%, and the company said organic revenue growth was the main driver of that performance. Higher marketing investment and operating expenses partly constrained the increase, putting quarterly earnings growth alongside the costs of commercial support and operations.
In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, unit case volume grew 5% in the third quarter, while adjusted organic revenue in the region rose 7%, according to company data. The gap between volume growth and organic revenue shows the contribution of price/mix and other revenue factors to regional performance, alongside volume expansion. The region's growth came as global unit case volume rose 5%, led by markets in India, China, Mexico and Brazil. In the second quarter, Coca-Cola reported adjusted organic revenue growth of 6% and adjusted EPS up 11% to $0.97, according to its earlier results. In the third quarter, organic revenue grew 7% and adjusted EPS was $0.91, providing a comparison between the periods on the two metrics reported by the company.
Chief Executive Henrique Braun said in the second-quarter results statement that the company had delivered “another strong quarter by staying close to the changing needs of our consumers and customers.” Associated Press coverage in 2025 pointed to diverging consumer behavior in North America and Europe: higher-income shoppers chose pricier brands such as Smartwater, Topo Chico and Fairlife, while middle- and lower-income consumers faced greater pressure. This background provides context for the market of different brands in which the company operates, but does not explain the guidance revision announced in the third-quarter results. The company's earnings call was scheduled for October 27, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Bloomberg-compiled options data had estimated an implied share move of 2.9% that day ahead of the announcement, and showed the stock had exceeded its implied move in five of the last eight earnings releases. Coca-Cola said it would provide its full 2027 guidance when it reports fourth-quarter results.