China’s Population Falls by 3.39 Million in 2025 as Births Hit Record Low
Key Facts
China’s population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million at the end of 2025, its fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The contraction began in 2022, while the decline in 2025 was faster than the previous year’s. The country recorded 7.92 million births during the year, against 11.31 million deaths, putting the natural population growth rate at -2.41 per thousand. These figures put the gap between births and deaths at the heart of the annual decline. Births also fell below their 2024 level, while deaths rose compared with that year.
The birth rate was 5.63 per thousand people in 2025, its lowest recorded level since 1949, according to the Associated Press. Births had reached 9.54 million in 2024 before falling to 7.92 million the following year, according to National Bureau of Statistics data. The comparison shows a decline in births alongside a continued fall in the total population. Meanwhile, deaths rose to 11.31 million in 2025 from 10.93 million in 2024, according to bureau data cited by Reuters. The death rate was 8.04 per thousand in 2025, compared with a lower birth rate of 5.63 per thousand. China thus recorded negative natural growth of -2.41 per thousand during the year.
The Chinese government announced in July 2025 that it would provide cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child, according to the Associated Press. The subsidy is part of policy changes aimed at encouraging families to have more children, but the agency said officials had made limited headway in that effort. The 2025 data show the scale of the challenge facing these policies: births fell from the previous year, while deaths outnumbered births. The available figures do not give the number of families receiving the subsidy or a quantitative measure of its effect on births. The 15th Five-Year Plan, according to text published on the Chinese government portal, focuses on improving policies and incentives to support childbearing. It also aims to reduce the costs of childbirth, childcare and education, while expanding comprehensive care services.
Data for the past two years reflect a continued population contraction alongside fewer births: the population fell by 1.39 million in 2024, when births totaled 9.54 million, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. In 2025, the population decline widened to 3.39 million, while births fell to 7.92 million. On the mortality side, the data showed deaths rising from 10.93 million in 2024 to 11.31 million in 2025. The combination of fewer births and more deaths resulted in a negative natural growth rate in 2025. It was the fourth consecutive year of population decline since the contraction began in 2022, according to the Associated Press.
In the next phase, the 15th Five-Year Plan includes cutting the costs of childbirth, childcare and education among its priorities, alongside improving incentives and expanding comprehensive care services, according to the plan’s text published on the Chinese government portal. This follows the announcement of the cash subsidy in July 2025, which the Associated Press said had had limited impact in encouraging families under the policy changes. The 2025 data provide figures that can be compared with earlier ones: a birth rate of 5.63 per thousand, 11.31 million deaths and a natural growth rate of -2.41 per thousand. The published facts here do not specify the effect of the measures in the plan on births. The evidence does not include a date for the next population data release.