Bitcoin Closes at $80,595.83 Ahead of Fed Meeting
Key Facts
Bitcoin closed at $80,595.83 on October 27, according to EL7 data, remaining near $80,000 as the Federal Reserve’s meeting takes place on October 27 and 28. The move comes ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference scheduled for October 28, putting the monetary policy path at the forefront of market attention. The available data do not establish that the cryptocurrency moved specifically in response to interest rate expectations or in anticipation of a signal from Warsh. The 83% figure cited in the previous draft for the probability of a rate hike in December cannot be verified, so it does not represent a documented market reading. The recorded closing price remains the direct indicator of Bitcoin’s performance that day.
The close fell from $84,093.42 on October 21 to $80,595.83 on October 27, according to EL7 data. The path shows a decline over the period, with the price ending near $80,000. This comes as markets await the current meeting, while the available data do not allow the decline to be attributed to any single factor. An earlier EL7 report covered Bitcoin’s rise after the first U.S. rate hike since 2023, on September 17. That story provides context on the coincidence of cryptocurrency moves with Fed decisions, but does not by itself explain the moves in recent days.
Against the monetary policy backdrop, EL7 calendar data showed the effective interest rate at 4% in the September 16 decision, compared with a previous level of 3.75%. That places the October meeting after a decision that saw the interest rate recorded on the calendar rise. According to the Associated Press, investors saw only a very small chance of a rate hike at the October meeting, based on futures prices. The agency reported that Warsh’s remarks on inflation could be read as a signal of a possible rate hike at the December meeting, but it did not give a probability for that outcome. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said his colleagues should make their own judgment about rising long-term interest rates in markets, adding that it "may take longer."
These developments coincided with an improvement in U.S. consumer confidence: the Conference Board’s index rose to 91.7 points in October from 84.2 points in September, a monthly increase of 7.5 points. The board’s chief economist said the improvement was driven mainly by consumers’ more favorable views of current and expected business conditions. He added that falling gasoline prices from September to October were consistent with the recovery in confidence. This reading alone does not establish that the index exceeded market expectations, nor does it settle the direction of the Fed’s decision. It provides, however, context on households’ assessment of economic conditions in the period ahead of the committee meeting.
Minutes of the September meeting show that nominal Treasury yields rose by about 35 basis points across maturities from two to 10 years between the July and September meetings. The market director attributed part of the increase to a higher expected path for monetary policy and strong economic data. The minutes also said that data over the period showed a resilient economy with inflation continuing, while geopolitical tensions pushed energy prices higher. Over the same period, Treasury yields, short-term inflation compensation and stock prices rose. These developments place the move in yields and the inflation assessment in the context ahead of the October meeting, without determining the committee’s decision on their own.
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee meet on October 27 and 28, according to the Federal Reserve calendar, with Warsh’s press conference scheduled for October 28. The next monetary policy meeting follows on December 8 and 9. The minutes of the December meeting are scheduled for release on December 30, according to the Fed’s policy calendar. This makes the October meeting the near-term milestone ahead of the December meeting that the Associated Press said could be the focus of rate-hike expectations. Warsh became chair of the Federal Reserve on May 22, 2026, and also chairs the Federal Open Market Committee.