Gold Closes Higher at $4,074.6 Ahead of Fed Decision

Key Facts

EL7 data showed gold closing at $4,074.6 on October 27, compared with $4,038.4 in the previous session, as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's decision. During the session, spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,051.78 an ounce by 10:59 a.m. Eastern time, after falling earlier to $3,987.14, according to a Reuters update. The report linked the rise in prices to lower oil prices, which eased inflation concerns, and investors' wait for signals from the central bank on the path of interest rates. Closing data show the metal ended the day above its October 26 close, after fluctuating during trading. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting was scheduled to run for two days, October 27 and 28, ahead of a news conference scheduled for the following day.

The daily move came as analysts lowered their 2026 gold price estimates for a second consecutive quarter. The average forecast in a Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders, conducted over the previous three weeks, was $4,495 an ounce, compared with $4,509 in a poll three months earlier. The report attributed the lower forecasts to rising U.S. Treasury yields, a strong dollar and expectations that interest rates would remain higher for longer. That annual estimate puts the financing and dollar pressures cited by respondents in context, while gold rose during the October 27 session. Reuters said price forecasts were cut for a second consecutive quarter, with central-bank demand remaining a supportive factor, as stated in the report's headline.

Data from the Conference Board showed U.S. consumer confidence improved in October, with the index rising 7.5 points to 91.7, from 84.2 in September. The Associated Press reported that the board said the index posted a monthly increase in the reading published on October 27. The latest reading was released on the day of the story, unlike the September reading cited in the initial draft. The improvement in confidence presents a different picture from September's data, without changing the Fed meeting scheduled for October 27 and 28. Markets are tracking economic indicators as they await the central bank's guidance on interest rates.

In housing, the U.S. new-home sales rate was 676,000 homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in September, down 0.6% from August's rate of 680,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The bureau estimated the inventory of new homes for sale at the end of September at 476,000, equivalent to 8.4 months of supply at the current sales pace. The data were published on October 27, so September figures replaced the August inventory estimates cited in the initial draft. The bureau's calendar also listed the release of October new-home sales data for November 25, at 10:00 a.m. local time. September's release was therefore already available before the committee meeting and news conference scheduled for October 28.

At its previous meeting in September, the Fed had raised its target interest-rate range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%–4%, with members approving the decision unanimously, by a vote of 12 to 0. Ahead of the October meeting, the Associated Press reported that investors saw almost no chance of a rate increase, and the prevailing rate was about 3.9%. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said higher long-term interest rates in financial markets meant policymakers should take time to form their judgment, adding: "That may take more time." The committee's news conference was scheduled for October 28 at 2:30 p.m. Third-quarter gross domestic product data and the September personal consumption expenditures index were also scheduled for the day after the Fed decision.

Gold's rise during the session coincided with a decline in oil prices, while a separate report said Brent crude closed down 1.5% at $114.10 a barrel on October 27. The report attributed the decline to diplomatic efforts among regional powers in the Middle East that eased concerns about supply disruptions. The Reuters report on gold had linked lower oil prices to support for the metal by easing inflation concerns, while the upcoming Fed meeting kept the interest-rate path in focus for investors. These moves place gold in a session that saw it fluctuate between a low of $3,987.14 an ounce and a subsequent rise to $4,051.78, before EL7 data showed it closing at $4,074.6. Attention after the committee meeting shifts to the news conference on October 28, followed by the economic data scheduled for the next day.