Ukrainian wheat exports to Indonesia and Bangladesh disrupted since summer

Key Facts

Ukrainian wheat exports to Indonesia and Bangladesh have effectively stopped since the summer, according to a summary of a Nikkei Asia report that said buyers in both countries reported supply disruptions. The summary places the shipment disruption in the context of Black Sea attacks, while the Ukrainian government said attacks on civilian vessels and port infrastructure had prompted exporters to change routes. Ukraine’s prime minister said this had "complicated logistics and extended delivery times." The report points to a direct impact on wheat flows to two Asian markets, but the volume of shipments delayed to them is not specified in the available material. In Indonesia, 2025 trade data show that Ukraine remained an important supplier, despite a drop in imports from the country compared with the previous year.

Indonesia imported 868.5 thousand tonnes of cereals and mixed wheat and rye from Ukraine in 2025, down from 2,403.7 thousand tonnes in 2024, according to data from Statistics Indonesia. This category includes cereals and mixed wheat and rye, so it is not a figure for wheat alone. In the same year, Indonesia’s total imports in the category reached 10,837.5 thousand tonnes, compared with 11,715.0 thousand tonnes in 2024. Australia was the largest source, with Indonesia importing 4,595.7 thousand tonnes from it in 2025. These figures show that the Indonesian market relies on imports from several sources, and that Australia was its largest supplier in this category that year. But the decline in imports from Ukraine between 2024 and 2025 alone does not establish the impact of the reported halt in shipments since the summer.

The Food and Agriculture Organization expects Indonesia’s wheat import requirements to reach 11.5 million tonnes in marketing year 2025/26, near a record, driven by population growth and higher domestic consumption of wheat-based foods. The estimate puts the disruption to Ukrainian supplies within a market that imports large volumes to meet demand, while aggregate import data remain separate from estimates of wheat requirements. For Ukrainian exports, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s October report cut its forecast for wheat exports in marketing year 2025/26 by 1,000 thousand tonnes, to 12,500 thousand tonnes, citing continued logistical difficulties. Ukraine’s agriculture ministry also said the country exported 1.6 million tonnes of agricultural products during the first 21 days of September, or 43% of the planned volume for that period. These data offer indicators of logistical constraints and export expectations, but the monthly figure covers agricultural products overall, not wheat shipments to Indonesia and Bangladesh specifically.

The shipping disruption in the Black Sea has coincided with some buyers shifting to alternative sources. An S&P Global report said buyers in Bangladesh had turned to Indian wheat, offered at the border in a range of 310 to 315 dollars per tonne in October, making Black Sea imports less attractive to them. In a separate measure of wheat prices, the Platts milling wheat index averaged 211.73 dollars per tonne in September, after reaching 219.30 dollars per tonne in August at Black Sea ports. The difference between the two figures reflects a lower average in September than in August, while the Indian wheat price is a border price in October; they are measures for different periods and markets. An earlier S&P Global report said Black Sea disruptions had delayed shipments and driven buyers to seek alternative sources, while the Platts milling wheat benchmark was assessed at 214 dollars per tonne on 1 September. These prices alone do not prove that the halt in exports to the two countries pushed prices higher, but they document specific index movements and a shift by buyers in Bangladesh to an alternative supplier.

The following Indonesian trade and inflation data are due for release soon. Bank Indonesia’s calendar lists October inflation data and the trade balance, exports and imports for October as due on 2 November 2026. The calendar entry does not describe inflation as annual, and the release date does not establish that the wheat import disruption will appear in food or trade figures. The forthcoming data will allow market participants to track monthly imports and trade, while directly linking them to Ukrainian shipments would require detailed figures on supply sources and volumes. Until then, the available indicators remain spread across a report of supply disruptions, annual Indonesian import data, estimates of requirements and exports, and prices published for specific periods.