Saudi Oil Production Rises 12.2% to 8 Million Barrels a Day in September

Key Facts

Saudi crude oil production rose to 8 million barrels a day in September 2026, up 12.2% month on month, according to Al Rajhi Capital research cited by TradeArabia. The increase puts production well above the International Energy Agency’s estimate of 5.97 million barrels a day in August. The agency estimated September production at 8.3 million barrels a day, highlighting a gap between the two sources’ estimates for the same month. More broadly, the IEA said global oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day month on month to 102.3 million in September. The agency attributed the global increase to Gulf producers.

Production gains coincided with higher oil prices during the month. Brent stood at $103.5 a barrel at the end of September, according to Al Rajhi Capital’s report as cited by TradeArabia. The IEA said Brent futures had risen 13% since the start of September to about $107 a barrel when it published its report in October. North Sea Dated crude also rose by $26.17 a barrel month on month to $116.89 in September, according to the agency. Al Rajhi’s report does not establish that higher prices or production led to an increase in Saudi oil revenue.

The increase in production followed a 4.7% year-on-year contraction in the Saudi economy in the second quarter of 2026. Data cited by TradeArabia attributed the contraction mainly to a 24.8% decline in oil activities during the quarter. Non-oil activities and government activities, by contrast, each grew 0.9%. September indicators showed an improvement in business activity, with the Saudi purchasing managers’ index rising to 55.3 points, its strongest reading since February. The Al Rajhi Capital Construction Sector Index remained in expansion territory at 54.4 points.

Spending indicators pointed to continued consumer growth ahead of the end of the third quarter. Consumer spending rose 6.4% year on year in August to 142 billion riyals, while e-commerce spending increased 26%, according to data reported by TradeArabia. Inflation, by contrast, accelerated to 1.9% in September from 1.8% in August. Housing and utilities costs rose 3.6% in September, according to the report. The figures present a mixed picture of domestic activity, with consumer spending and business indicators growing on one hand and price pressures on the other.

Al Rajhi Capital estimated Saudi government spending in 2026 at 1.435 trillion riyals, 9.3% above budget. The report put revenue at 1.19 trillion riyals, 3.7% above budget. Based on its spending and revenue estimates, it forecast a deficit of 245 billion riyals, equivalent to 4.9% of gross domestic product. These remain annual estimates for spending, revenue and the deficit, not a direct measure of the effect of September’s oil production increase on the treasury. This comes as some domestic asset indicators are declining.

The value of residential real estate transactions fell 39% year on year to 8.7 billion riyals in September, while the value of commercial transactions declined 32% to 5.4 billion riyals. In financial markets, the Tadawul All Share Index fell 6.2% during the month. Average daily trading value also declined 26%, according to TradeArabia. These moves show that higher oil production did not coincide with a rise in Saudi stocks in September. Tracked global oil inventories also fell by 10 million barrels during the month, leaving them 509 million barrels below end-February levels, according to the IEA.

Attention is turning to Saudi gross domestic product data for the third quarter, scheduled for release on November 1, 2026. The calendar page shows a previous reading of -4.7% for the second quarter but no published forecast, according to the available source. On the same day, OPEC said its next meeting to review oil market conditions would be held on November 1. For global demand, the IEA forecast oil consumption would fall by 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026, followed by a recovery of 2 million barrels a day in 2027. Those forecasts place the increase in Saudi production within a global oil market where supply and demand are moving in different directions.