Rystad: LNG Importers’ Bill to Rise by $39 Billion in 2026 Despite Lower Purchases
Key Facts
Rystad Energy expects global liquefied natural gas importers to spend at least $39 billion more on contracted and spot supplies in 2026, despite buying 60.7 million tonnes less. The company said global LNG portfolio costs would rise from a pre-war estimate of $217.8 billion to at least $256.3 billion, an increase of 18%. The estimate puts the cost of supply disruption at the center of the picture, combining lower volumes purchased with higher spending. Rystad’s model assumes no LNG deliveries from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates from March through the end of 2026. The company says Europe’s bill will rise by at least $12 billion, or 18%, despite a 24 million-tonne drop in demand.
Rystad estimates that Europe will lose 20.6 million tonnes of the 24.7 million tonnes of Qatari gas scheduled for delivery there in 2026. This comes in a market where Europe relies heavily on spot purchases: it buys about 65% of its LNG on the spot market, while roughly a quarter of its long-term contracts are linked to gas price benchmarks. This mix leaves Europe’s bill more exposed to spot price movements, according to the company’s figures. By contrast, spot gas accounted for 14.5% of East Asia’s imports, based on Rystad’s 2026 estimate. The company expects the region to record the smallest proportional increase in LNG costs among regions outside the Middle East, at 9.7%.
The difference in impact between the two regions reflects variations in contract pricing mechanisms, according to Rystad. In East Asia, 82% of long-term LNG contracts are linked to oil, and prices for those contracts have risen about 28%. By contrast, prices linked to hub benchmarks and spot gas have risen 72%, while Europe’s average gas price has climbed 47%. The gap highlights the effect of Europe’s greater reliance on spot pricing compared with the share of Asian contracts linked to oil. Nearly 90% of LNG exports transiting the Strait of Hormuz go to Asia, compared with just over 10% to Europe, according to 2025 data from the International Energy Agency.
The importance of the waterway to the market reflects the volume of supplies passing through it: the International Energy Agency says almost all LNG exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, except cargoes bound for Kuwait, pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar exported more than 112 billion cubic meters in 2025, compared with 7 billion cubic meters for the United Arab Emirates, according to the agency. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that the closure of the strait affected more than 10 billion cubic feet per day of global LNG supplies, or about 20%. No loaded LNG vessels were known to have transited the strait between March 1 and April 24, according to the administration. As for prices, monthly averages for spot gas in Asia and Europe in March reached their highest levels since January 2023, the International Energy Agency said.
Prices remained elevated in the second quarter compared with 2025 levels: the TTF index averaged 32% higher year on year at about $16 per million British thermal units, while the average spot LNG price in Asia rose 45% to $17.5 per unit, according to the International Energy Agency. Production growth outside the Gulf offset part of the decline in Gulf shipments over the same period. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates’ shipments fell by 35 billion cubic meters between March and June compared with the same period in 2025, while LNG production outside the Gulf grew nearly 18%, or about 27 billion cubic meters, offsetting roughly three-quarters of the decline. The agency forecast a gradual resumption of Qatari and Emirati deliveries between July and October. Its forecast was based on the assumption that the strait would fully reopen in the third quarter and that undamaged facilities would be fully operational again in early fourth quarter, while uncertainty remained over the return of normal flows.