Netanyahu directs military and Mossad to topple Iran’s government ahead of Oct. 27 election

Key Facts

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Oct. 21 that toppling the government in Iran was his directive to the Israeli military, Mossad and security agencies, during a speech at an officers’ graduation ceremony at the Bahad 1 base. The Prime Minister’s Office published the speech that day, while Netanyahu presented the directive as a political and security goal to remove what he described as the Iranian threat. He did not announce an operational timetable or details of specific steps to achieve that goal. He based his justification on accusations that Tehran was seeking to resume developing nuclear weapons. He also said that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had decided to follow in his father’s footsteps.

Netanyahu said Mojtaba Khamenei “decided to follow in his father’s footsteps” and that Iran was again trying to develop “bombs of death,” referring to Iran’s nuclear program. He said the Iranian government had not learned its lesson, despite what he described as having been hit. In the speech, he said the government was “bleeding, wounded and shattered,” then concluded that toppling it was the only way to remove the threat, in his words. These remarks place the nuclear accusation at the heart of the rationale for the directive he announced. The published official text did not describe Iran as a “wounded scorpion.”

Netanyahu brought the United States into his account of the course of the confrontation, saying President Donald Trump had told him days earlier that Washington was ready to finish the job, but would do so in coordination with Israel. He quoted Trump as saying, “We are ready to finish the job,” then added that Trump said, “But we will do it only with you, the State of Israel.” The statement presents Netanyahu’s position on U.S.-Israeli coordination, but does not include an independent U.S. announcement of a military decision or when it would be carried out. On Oct. 25, Trump said there would be no strike on Iran “today,” without ruling out later options. The position comes ahead of Israel’s general election scheduled for Oct. 27, amid concerns that its outcome could affect the likelihood of a resumption of the war.

Political tensions coincided with risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for energy supplies. Iran said 7 oil tankers caught fire or were damaged in the strait during the night of Oct. 22 after being struck or hitting sea mines; The Associated Press could not independently verify Iran’s account. The agency reported, citing the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations organization, that October saw the highest number of reported attacks on commercial shipping since March. By contrast, Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said oil flows through the East-West pipeline, which bypasses the strait, had risen to 7 million barrels per day from 2 million barrels. The shift highlights the pipeline’s ability to carry larger volumes away from the strait during the energy crisis.

The Associated Press warned that a return to all-out fighting could put civilians across the region at risk and complicate the movement of oil, natural gas and fertilizer from the region, potentially driving prices higher again. On the diplomatic front, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said Tehran had not closed the door to diplomacy and that messages were still being relayed to Washington through intermediaries, as negotiations appeared to have stalled for weeks. Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan also said his country remained ready for talks with the United States under an interim agreement brokered by Pakistan in June. He added that Tehran had told Islamabad it was ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifted its naval blockade. The statements set no date for resuming negotiations or reopening the strait.

On the security of the strait, the commander of U.S. Central Command said more than 3,000 commercial vessels had passed through the passage with U.S. military support during the six months before his remarks. Netanyahu, for his part, warned that Iran or its allies might launch attacks to influence the Israeli election, saying the Israeli military was prepared to “defend and attack.” That warning puts election security among the risks the prime minister cited in the days before the Oct. 27 vote. The Associated Press had quoted a source as saying a clear Netanyahu election victory would make an attack “almost certain”; that remains an assessment attributed to the source, not an announced decision. The available facts do not provide a specific market response to Netanyahu’s directive.