EL7.AI
Central BanksMedium•26 October 2026•
4 min read

5 Rate Decisions, Inflation and Growth Data to Shape Global Markets This Week

Key Facts

1The Fed meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, with the news conference on October 28 at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time.
2The U.S. third-quarter GDP estimate and September personal income and spending data are due October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
3Wall Street expects the Fed to hold rates steady this week, while forecasts lean toward another increase in December.
4The U.S. S&P Global composite index fell to 57.6 in October from 58.4 in September.

Markets are focused on 5 central banks this week, with rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday, October 28, followed by a meeting of the European Central Bank that concludes Thursday, October 29, and a Bank of Japan meeting that ends Friday, October 30. The schedule coincides with the release of the U.S. third-quarter GDP estimate and September personal income and spending data, including the personal consumption expenditures price index, on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Wednesday will also bring the United Kingdom’s 2026 budget and updated fiscal forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. These dates put rate decisions and economic data in the same window, as markets watch for growth and inflation signals that could affect assessments of the monetary policy path. In markets, U.S. stocks fell at the end of last week, while oil declined Monday after a sharp rise the previous week.

Wednesday’s decision calendar begins with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which runs October 27-28, followed by a news conference on October 28 at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time. In September, the Fed raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Wall Street expects the central bank to leave rates unchanged this week, while forecasts cited by The Associated Press lean toward another increase in December. In Canada, the central bank will announce its overnight rate decision and release its quarterly Monetary Policy Report on October 28 at 09:45 a.m. Eastern time. The bank held its overnight rate target at 2.25% on September 2, making the new decision and report a point to watch for its view of the economic data.

U.S. activity and inflation indicators are sending mixed signals ahead of the meeting. The preliminary S&P Global composite output index fell to 57.6 in October from 58.4 in September, but remained consistent with annualized growth of 5.0%, according to the survey data. The company said selling prices rose at their fastest pace since August 2022, with businesses pointing to oil-, energy-, fuel- and shipping-related inputs as factors driving up costs. The strong activity survey and price pressures add to a picture in which output momentum differs from weak consumer confidence, while policymakers face inflation data that are not all moving in the same direction.

Attention turns Thursday to the preliminary U.S. third-quarter GDP estimate and the September personal income and spending report, both scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Economists surveyed by The Associated Press expect growth of 1.7% from July to September, after annualized growth of 2.2% in the second quarter. The same report is expected to show PCE inflation rising to a rate of 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, compared with the Fed’s 2% target. The index is the central bank’s preferred inflation measure, putting its reading alongside growth at the center of investors’ assessment of the rate decision and its path. The ECB decision is due the same day, following a meeting that began Wednesday, October 28, with a news conference after Thursday’s session.

The Bank of Japan meets on October 29-30, with its monetary policy statement and October Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices scheduled for October 30. That means the bank’s meeting extends beyond the Fed, Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand decisions, and follows the ECB decision. British data add a domestic fiscal backdrop to Wednesday’s calendar ahead of the budget: public sector net borrowing was 24.5 billion pounds in September, compared with 22.8 billion a year earlier, and came in 1.9 billion pounds above the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast. The U.K. consumer price index also rose 3.5% in the 12 months through September, up from 3.1% in August. The 2026 budget is set to be accompanied by updated fiscal forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, placing borrowing and inflation figures in the event’s fiscal context.

In the oil market, Brent crude fell 1.4% on Monday to $110.12 a barrel, while U.S. benchmark crude dropped 1.8% to $101.37. The decline followed Brent’s Friday close at $116.72 a barrel, its highest closing level since June 2022. In equities, the S&P 500 lost 0.5% on Friday, marking its second straight weekly decline, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%. Analysts said, according to The Associated Press, investors were bracing for results from major companies and central bank decisions that could move markets. After this week, traders will be watching for the U.S. October consumer price index, due November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.